TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jaroslav Puk vs Adam Dvoracek 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811116117113––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:27 and never touched: 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Dvoracek to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Puk above · Adam Dvoracek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 68 set 4, 11-3 · our read held Adam Dvoracek at 64.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Puk 4–4 Adam Dvoracek Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:2764.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dvoracek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Puk 1363 vs Dvoracek 1451
Dvoracek
Wrong
both rated, 87 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Puk 20% vs Dvoracek 100%
Dvoracek
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Puk 20% vs Dvoracek 80%
Dvoracek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Puk -3 · Dvoracek +6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Dvoracek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvoracek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPuk 2.375 / Dvoracek 1.533
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Dvoracek)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223900
Puk2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 38 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 39
Dvoracek1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 72 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it78% 52 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePuk4wins
AwayDvoracek4wins
1 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePuk60%3 of 5
AwayDvoracek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Puk5Dvoracek3n = 8Puk took 5 of 8
S2Puk3Dvoracek5n = 8Dvoracek took 5 of 8
S3Puk4Dvoracek4n = 8split evenly
S4Puk2Dvoracek4n = 6Dvoracek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricPukDvoracekP − DBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match35.834.1+1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPukDvoracekBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 313 vs 251 / 47846.7%52.5%146 / 313 vs 251 / 478Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DvoracekPuk 2.38/Dvoracek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Dvoracek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Puk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 1 · 10:30J. Puk4181111113A. Dvoracek27116731
LSep 8 · 09:03J. Puk33691171A. Dvoracek4011117113
WSep 8 · 08:00J. Puk44121011113A. Dvoracek341012481
LJul 21 · 10:30J. Puk215880A. Dvoracek331111113
WMay 7 · 11:00J. Puk50111198113A. Dvoracek4146111192
LFeb 2 · 11:30J. Puk32116691A. Dvoracek4181111113
LNov 28 · 14:00J. Puk31115871A. Dvoracek3851111113
WNov 28 · 13:00J. Puk341211113A. Dvoracek1910270
J. Puk10
LOct 1 · 11:30J. Puk2.505670M. Melisek1.501111113LOct 1 · 09:30J. Puk1.7314116372J. Jnr2.001261111113LSep 29 · 08:53J. Puk1.80117831M. Vorel1.9161111113LSep 29 · 07:45J. Puk1.67881171M. Vorel2.1011119113WSep 29 · 06:15P. Hlina1.441176101J. Puk2.6361111123LSep 29 · 05:45A. Sys2.38125115113J. Puk1.53101191172LSep 25 · 08:53J. Puk1.91611491M. Vorel1.8011811113WSep 25 · 07:45M. Vorel1.83911991J. Puk1.8311911113LSep 25 · 06:45K. Farsky1.801111113J. Puk1.915760LSep 25 · 05:15P. Hlina1.5311119113J. Puk2.38371161
A. Dvoracek10
WOct 1 · 10:00M. Melisek2.63111951A. Dvoracek1.4451111113WSep 30 · 08:38A. Dvoracek1.5711116133P. Cizek2.255711111WSep 30 · 07:30P. Cizek2.257711101A. Dvoracek1.5711114123WSep 30 · 07:00A. Dvoracek1.73118118123D. Sabuka2.00811611102WSep 30 · 06:00A. Dvoracek1.615111112113M. Obraz2.2011741452WSep 26 · 16:59J. Hanacek1.831181391A. Dvoracek1.8371115113LSep 26 · 16:00A. Dvoracek1.831110661J. Hanacek1.8351211113WSep 26 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer2.204770A. Dvoracek1.611111113LSep 26 · 14:00J. Mejzlik1.8011611113A. Dvoracek1.91811991WSep 24 · 12:43A. Dvoracek1.67128114113J. Blazek2.10101161152
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