TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavel Cizek vs Martin Obraz 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116711811711––
Martin Obraz
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:19 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timePavel Cizek to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Cizek above · Martin Obraz below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 72 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Pavel Cizek at 64.5%
72 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cizek 3–0 Martin Obraz Martin Obraz has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 23h before this match
Cizek beat Obraz 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:1964.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cizek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Cizek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1318 vs Obraz 1298
Cizek
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 40% vs Obraz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 30% vs Obraz 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek -2 · Obraz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Cizek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.444 / Obraz 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Cizek)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223886
Cizek1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite62% won 13 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Obraz2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 28 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeCizek3wins
AwayObraz0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderCizek leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek2Obraz1n = 3Cizek took 2 of 3
S2Cizek2Obraz1n = 3Cizek took 2 of 3
S3Cizek3Obraz0n = 3Cizek took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricCizekObrazC − OBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match38.728.3+10.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekObrazBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 75 vs 146 / 33642.7%43.5%32 / 75 vs 146 / 336Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CizekCizek 1.44/Obraz 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Cizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Obraz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 30 · 06:30P. Cizek331111113M. Obraz236890
WSep 16 · 08:34P. Cizek341112113M. Obraz2241080
WSep 16 · 07:30P. Cizek49971111113M. Obraz4011116662
P. Cizek10
LOct 1 · 07:30P. Cizek2.38161171172L. Krutina1.531441113113LOct 1 · 06:30P. Cizek1.618970P. Moulis2.201111113LSep 30 · 08:38A. Dvoracek1.5711116133P. Cizek2.255711111LSep 30 · 07:30P. Cizek2.257711101A. Dvoracek1.5711114123WSep 30 · 06:30P. Cizek1.611111113M. Obraz2.206890LSep 30 · 05:30P. Cizek1.8351111692D. Sabuka1.83115611113WSep 16 · 08:34P. Cizek1.831112113M. Obraz1.8341080WSep 16 · 07:30M. Obraz1.6711116662P. Cizek2.10971111113LSep 16 · 07:00P. Cizek2.3891112862M. Cmil1.531171011113LSep 16 · 06:00P. Cizek2.108670L. Krutina1.671111113
M. Obraz10
LOct 1 · 07:00L. Krutina1.8031113113M. Obraz1.911191191LSep 30 · 09:08D. Sabuka2.001214123M. Obraz1.731012100WSep 30 · 08:00M. Obraz1.8311711113D. Sabuka1.83811791LSep 30 · 06:30P. Cizek1.611111113M. Obraz2.206890LSep 30 · 06:00A. Dvoracek1.615111112113M. Obraz2.2011741452WSep 24 · 12:13M. Obraz2.2011611113M. Vorel1.61711761LSep 24 · 11:45A. Dvoracek2.201111123M. Obraz1.6189100WSep 24 · 10:45J. Blazek1.73119991M. Obraz2.0051111113LSep 16 · 08:34P. Cizek1.831112113M. Obraz1.8341080LSep 16 · 07:30M. Obraz1.6711116662P. Cizek2.10971111113
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