TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Rutkowski vs Adrian Spychala 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411116117511118
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:12 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdrian Spychala to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
411116117511118
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 2–0 Adrian Spychala Adrian Spychala has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1254.0%Our read57.1%to break even at 1.75
short by 3.1pp57.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.75 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Spychala
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1672 vs Spychala 1753
Spychala
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 20% vs Spychala 80%
Spychala
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 40% vs Spychala 60%
Spychala
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski -4 · Spychala +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Spychala) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spychala form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.95 / Spychala 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Spychala)-3.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13222656
Rutkowski1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 120 of 295
Down 0–1, comes back21% 37 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 86
Spychala1.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 53 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it78% 36 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeRutkowski2wins
AwaySpychala0wins
Rutkowski leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricRutkowskiSpychalaR − SBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match36.029.5+6.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiSpychalaBasisWin rate · lifetime822 / 1466 vs 542 / 143656.1%37.7%822 / 1466 vs 542 / 1436Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.935.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SpychalaRutkowski 1.95/Spychala 1.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Spychala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 17 · 16:05M. Rutkowski3811511113A. Spychala33811681
WAug 13 · 16:30M. Rutkowski341111123A. Spychala2688100
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 30 · 12:35K. Kolodziej1.201111113M. Rutkowski3.806330LSep 30 · 11:45M. Olbrycht1.8011514113M. Rutkowski1.859111261LSep 30 · 10:55M. Rutkowski2.00811101182L. Jarocki1.70114128113LSep 30 · 09:45M. Rutkowski1.98813111282G. Poliniewicz1.731115310113WSep 28 · 13:50M. Rutkowski2.0011101014113K. Kapik1.73512121282WSep 28 · 12:35M. Rutkowski3.9011113113K. Kolodziej1.20781151WSep 28 · 11:20M. Rutkowski1.82711118113K. Wloczko1.8911851192WSep 28 · 10:05M. Sklensky1.5211144652M. Rutkowski2.383121111113LSep 28 · 09:20M. Rutkowski2.12112951D. Kostal1.6571111113LSep 28 · 08:30M. Rutkowski1.8767100K. Kapik1.831111123
A. Spychala10
WSep 30 · 13:25L. Jarocki1.7211811542A. Spychala2.00911211113WSep 30 · 11:20K. Kolodziej1.37129117102A. Spychala2.751011711123WSep 30 · 10:30G. Poliniewicz2.1011931192A. Spychala1.67711119113LSep 30 · 09:00M. Olbrycht1.8011115153A. Spychala1.809811131WSep 30 · 07:40A. Spychala1.8511511113M. Olbrycht1.80711451LSep 30 · 06:25A. Spychala2.0071011101L. Jarocki1.7111128123LSep 30 · 05:15A. Spychala3.00711591J. Kuzmicz1.3511511113LSep 30 · 04:00G. Poliniewicz2.10911114113A. Spychala1.6611941192WSep 30 · 03:20A. Spychala1.7011114113K. Wisniewski2.05581131WSep 29 · 14:15A. Spychala1.67111011113K. Staszczyk2.10812231
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