TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Slosarczyk vs Rafal Idaczyk 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811116611118711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:07 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeRafal Idaczyk to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Slosarczyk above · Rafal Idaczyk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Rafal Idaczyk at 56.6%
90 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Slosarczyk 7–8 Rafal Idaczyk Pawel Slosarczyk has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:0756.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Idaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slosarczyk 1258 vs Idaczyk 1368
Idaczyk
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slosarczyk 40% vs Idaczyk 20%
Slosarczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slosarczyk 40% vs Idaczyk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Slosarczyk -1 · Idaczyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Idaczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Idaczyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlosarczyk 2.10 / Idaczyk 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Idaczyk)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13222245
Slosarczyk2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 117 of 382
Down 0–1, comes back13% 28 of 224
Down 0–2, comes back1% 2 of 140
Idaczyk1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 118 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it96% 69 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it81% 95 of 117
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlosarczyk5wins
AwayIdaczyk5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlosarczyk75%3 of 4
AwayIdaczyk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slosarczyk4Idaczyk6n = 10Idaczyk took 6 of 10
S2Slosarczyk5Idaczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Slosarczyk4Idaczyk6n = 10Idaczyk took 6 of 10
S4Slosarczyk4Idaczyk3n = 7Slosarczyk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlosarczykIdaczykS − IBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.735.0−0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlosarczykIdaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 935 vs 480 / 95337.9%50.4%354 / 935 vs 480 / 953Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.335.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
IdaczykSlosarczyk 2.10/Idaczyk 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Idaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Idaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 06:25P. Slosarczyk291135101R. Idaczyk4281111123
WSep 5 · 11:55P. Slosarczyk4111118113R. Idaczyk32491181
LSep 5 · 05:55P. Slosarczyk2410590R. Idaczyk341211113
LAug 30 · 12:15P. Slosarczyk351081161R. Idaczyk4312119113
LAug 30 · 08:35P. Slosarczyk33581191R. Idaczyk4011117113
LJul 18 · 05:35P. Slosarczyk215970R. Idaczyk331111113
WJun 24 · 11:25P. Slosarczyk528111111113R. Idaczyk4211913542
WApr 30 · 05:35P. Slosarczyk341211113R. Idaczyk2310850
WMar 1 · 06:35P. Slosarczyk3961111113R. Idaczyk29116661
WFeb 22 · 04:10P. Slosarczyk3911116113R. Idaczyk32971151
P. Slosarczyk10
LOct 1 · 05:40P. Slosarczyk3.50631161P. Gumulinski1.2811118113LOct 1 · 03:00P. Slosarczyk3.252640W. Urban1.331111113WSep 30 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.445111181P. Slosarczyk2.6311138113WSep 30 · 01:00J. Nowak1.8311119592P. Slosarczyk1.83961111113LSep 30 · 00:10P. Slosarczyk3.50114111172P. Gumulinski1.28911139113LSep 29 · 22:35P. Slosarczyk3.50861181L. Oracz1.2811114113WSep 29 · 21:45O. Sokolowski1.804670P. Slosarczyk1.911111113LSep 29 · 20:30P. Slosarczyk3.009280P. Gumulinski1.361111113LSep 29 · 18:55P. Slosarczyk2.10111141092J. Nowak1.67431112113WSep 29 · 17:45P. Slosarczyk2.251111113M. Koczyba1.577370
R. Idaczyk10
WOct 1 · 05:15R. Idaczyk1.8071115113W. Urban1.911171381WOct 1 · 03:25R. Idaczyk1.9111811123M. Baron1.808116101LSep 29 · 14:20K. Kowalski3.401111113R. Idaczyk1.308880LSep 29 · 13:30K. Schaniel1.73119119113R. Idaczyk2.0061191172LSep 29 · 11:25R. Gajda1.57111011143R. Idaczyk2.259128121LSep 29 · 10:35I. Szymanski4.331111113R. Idaczyk1.209580WSep 29 · 09:00P. Przewlocki2.10919531R. Idaczyk1.67111711113WSep 29 · 08:10K. Kowalski3.751384111R. Idaczyk1.25111111133WSep 29 · 07:20K. Schaniel1.73911101172R. Idaczyk2.00119126113WSep 29 · 05:15R. Gajda1.618880R. Idaczyk2.201111113
Upcoming Matches
P. Slosarczyk
Oct 1 · 06:55P. Slosarczyk2.20O. Vincenec1.61—Oct 1 · 08:35P. Slosarczyk2.00M. Baron1.73—Oct 1 · 09:50P. Slosarczyk3.50P. Gumulinski1.28—Oct 1 · 10:35P. Slosarczyk3.75W. Urban1.25—Oct 1 · 12:15P. Slosarczyk2.00M. Baron1.73—Oct 1 · 13:05P. Slosarczyk2.20O. Vincenec1.61—Oct 1 · 13:55P. Slosarczyk2.10R. Idaczyk1.67—
R. Idaczyk
Oct 1 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.38P. Gumulinski1.53—Oct 1 · 07:45R. Idaczyk1.80O. Vincenec1.91—Oct 1 · 09:25R. Idaczyk2.00M. Baron1.73—Oct 1 · 10:10R. Idaczyk1.80O. Vincenec1.91—Oct 1 · 11:25R. Idaczyk1.73W. Urban2.00—Oct 1 · 12:40R. Idaczyk2.38P. Gumulinski1.53—Oct 1 · 13:55R. Idaczyk1.67P. Slosarczyk2.10—
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