TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Slosarczyk vs Wojciech Urban 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211611411––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:57 and never touched: 75.2% is still 75.2%
Graded at full timeWojciech Urban to win
75.2%
75.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Slosarczyk above · Wojciech Urban below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 45 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Wojciech Urban at 75.2%
45 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Slosarczyk 4–24 Wojciech Urban Pawel Slosarczyk has won 4 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:5775.2%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
clears by 0.2pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Urban
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-24 in 28
Urban
Correct
gap of 20 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slosarczyk 1269 vs Urban 1349
Urban
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slosarczyk 60% vs Urban 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slosarczyk 40% vs Urban 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Slosarczyk +2 · Urban -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Urban) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlosarczyk 3.25 / Urban 1.333
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Urban)+0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13221126
Slosarczyk3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 30)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 117 of 382
Down 0–1, comes back13% 28 of 224
Down 0–2, comes back1% 2 of 140
Urban1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 168 of 292
Up 2–0, closes it97% 69 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it74% 121 of 164
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlosarczyk0wins
AwayUrban10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderUrban leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlosarczykn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayUrban100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slosarczyk1Urban9n = 10Urban took 9 of 10
S2Slosarczyk4Urban6n = 10Urban took 6 of 10
S3Slosarczyk1Urban9n = 10Urban took 9 of 10
S4Slosarczyk2Urban4n = 6Urban took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlosarczykUrbanS − UBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match32.640.4−7.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlosarczykUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 934 vs 801 / 169837.9%47.2%354 / 934 vs 801 / 1698Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanSlosarczyk 3.25/Urban 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.2%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 13:05P. Slosarczyk368411131W. Urban4511118153
LSep 23 · 06:55P. Slosarczyk2255120W. Urban361111143
LSep 12 · 13:05P. Slosarczyk207670W. Urban331111113
LSep 2 · 08:00P. Slosarczyk378117111W. Urban4311811133
LAug 25 · 03:55P. Slosarczyk501112611102W. Urban51614118123
LAug 24 · 21:55P. Slosarczyk209470W. Urban331111113
LAug 24 · 03:55P. Slosarczyk249870W. Urban331111113
LAug 23 · 21:55P. Slosarczyk35611991W. Urban3911611113
LAug 10 · 01:30P. Slosarczyk369116101W. Urban4311911123
LAug 9 · 19:30P. Slosarczyk4681161292W. Urban481151110113
P. Slosarczyk10
LOct 1 · 04:10P. Slosarczyk2.1081161172R. Idaczyk1.67116118113WSep 30 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.445111181P. Slosarczyk2.6311138113WSep 30 · 01:00J. Nowak1.8311119592P. Slosarczyk1.83961111113LSep 30 · 00:10P. Slosarczyk3.50114111172P. Gumulinski1.28911139113LSep 29 · 22:35P. Slosarczyk3.50861181L. Oracz1.2811114113WSep 29 · 21:45O. Sokolowski1.804670P. Slosarczyk1.911111113LSep 29 · 20:30P. Slosarczyk3.009280P. Gumulinski1.361111113LSep 29 · 18:55P. Slosarczyk2.10111141092J. Nowak1.67431112113WSep 29 · 17:45P. Slosarczyk2.251111113M. Koczyba1.577370LSep 29 · 16:15P. Slosarczyk2.254811111O. Sokolowski1.5711116133
W. Urban10
LSep 30 · 08:20W. Urban2.037911101J. Kaczmarek1.7111117123WSep 30 · 06:45P. Adamus1.831112611112W. Urban1.88714117133WSep 30 · 06:00M. Cesarz3.658980W. Urban1.221111113LSep 30 · 05:10W. Urban2.3511128992M. Guzik1.509101111113WSep 30 · 04:00W. Urban1.99118117113M. Lebek1.7471171152WSep 29 · 08:20W. Urban1.571111113J. Kaczmarek2.253750LSep 29 · 06:45A. Ruszkiewicz1.8514811113W. Urban1.801211981LSep 29 · 06:00M. Sikon1.901111115113W. Urban1.7513791182LSep 29 · 05:10W. Urban2.05118981K. Hetnar1.6571111113WSep 29 · 04:00W. Urban2.60751111113M. Lebek1.4211117692
Upcoming Matches
P. Slosarczyk
Oct 1 · 05:40P. Slosarczyk3.40P. Gumulinski1.30—Oct 1 · 06:55P. Slosarczyk2.20O. Vincenec1.61—Oct 1 · 08:35P. Slosarczyk2.00M. Baron1.73—Oct 1 · 09:50P. Slosarczyk3.40P. Gumulinski1.30—Oct 1 · 10:35P. Slosarczyk3.25W. Urban1.33—Oct 1 · 12:15P. Slosarczyk2.00M. Baron1.73—Oct 1 · 13:05P. Slosarczyk2.20O. Vincenec1.61—Oct 1 · 13:55P. Slosarczyk2.10R. Idaczyk1.67—
W. Urban
Oct 1 · 05:15W. Urban1.91R. Idaczyk1.80—Oct 1 · 07:20W. Urban1.83M. Baron1.83—Oct 1 · 08:10W. Urban1.83P. Gumulinski1.83—Oct 1 · 09:00W. Urban1.83O. Vincenec1.83—Oct 1 · 10:35W. Urban1.33P. Slosarczyk3.25—Oct 1 · 11:25W. Urban1.91R. Idaczyk1.80—Oct 1 · 13:30W. Urban1.83M. Baron1.83—Oct 1 · 14:20W. Urban1.83P. Gumulinski1.83—
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