TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krzysztof Schaniel vs Witold Buczynski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116117118––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:51 and never touched: 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Schaniel to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
116117118––––
H2H Krzysztof Schaniel 26–25 Witold Buczynski Witold Buczynski has won 25 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5159.4%Our read60.6%to break even at 1.65
short by 1.2pp60.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.65 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (55%)
Schaniel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-25 in 51
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schaniel 1257 vs Buczynski 1309
Buczynski
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schaniel 20% vs Buczynski 80%
Buczynski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schaniel 50% vs Buczynski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schaniel -3 · Buczynski +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Schaniel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Buczynski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchaniel 1.65 / Buczynski 2.05
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Schaniel)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13222055
Schaniel1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 192 of 333
Up 2–0, closes it89% 92 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it75% 143 of 192
Buczynski2.05
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 192 of 504
Down 0–1, comes back22% 66 of 301
Down 0–2, comes back4% 6 of 163
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchaniel4wins
AwayBuczynski6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBuczynski leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchaniel66.7%2 of 3
AwayBuczynski71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schaniel3Buczynski7n = 10Buczynski took 7 of 10
S2Schaniel5Buczynski5n = 10split evenly
S3Schaniel5Buczynski5n = 10split evenly
S4Schaniel5Buczynski3n = 8Schaniel took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchanielBuczynskiS − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.436.5+0.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchanielBuczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime857 / 1731 vs 456 / 114749.5%39.8%857 / 1731 vs 456 / 1147Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielSchaniel 1.65/Buczynski 2.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.4%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Schaniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 05:55K. Schaniel521110111192W. Buczynski49131285113
LSep 17 · 15:30K. Schaniel30511771W. Buczynski4111811113
LSep 17 · 09:30K. Schaniel4511811962W. Buczynski41511311113
LAug 7 · 16:40K. Schaniel1835100W. Buczynski341111123
WAug 7 · 10:40K. Schaniel4281112113W. Buczynski281151021
WAug 3 · 09:50K. Schaniel4111118113W. Buczynski31471191
LAug 3 · 05:40K. Schaniel36811981W. Buczynski4011711113
WJul 23 · 14:40K. Schaniel3811313113W. Buczynski355111181
WJul 23 · 06:05K. Schaniel4491311113W. Buczynski301111441
LJul 19 · 14:40K. Schaniel2879120W. Buczynski361111143
K. Schaniel10
LSep 30 · 10:20K. Schaniel1.5011911792M. Rus2.35911611113LSep 30 · 09:05K. Schaniel1.5711911582B. Madej2.25811511113LSep 30 · 07:55K. Schaniel1.8511991162M. Sikon1.85611118113WSep 30 · 06:45R. Gajda1.801211118132K. Schaniel1.91149811153LSep 30 · 05:55K. Schaniel1.841110111192W. Buczynski1.86131285113LSep 29 · 14:40P. Przewlocki1.8351111113K. Schaniel1.83115581WSep 29 · 13:30K. Schaniel1.73119119113R. Idaczyk2.0061191172WSep 29 · 12:15I. Szymanski2.6351111482K. Schaniel1.44117711113WSep 29 · 11:00K. Kowalski4.00119612102K. Schaniel1.227111110123WSep 29 · 09:25R. Gajda1.8011119952K. Schaniel1.91581111113
W. Buczynski10
WSep 30 · 11:05R. Gajda1.7711117111W. Buczynski1.9313111133WSep 30 · 09:55W. Buczynski2.2713911113M. Sikon1.571111871WSep 30 · 08:45M. Rus2.201191011102W. Buczynski1.57711126123LSep 30 · 07:30B. Madej2.4071211113W. Buczynski1.511110781WSep 30 · 05:55K. Schaniel1.841110111192W. Buczynski1.86131285113WSep 28 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek1.917121151W. Buczynski1.8011148113WSep 28 · 13:30W. Buczynski2.63111414113S. Szostok1.445121691LSep 28 · 12:15I. Szymanski1.8391111113W. Buczynski1.83114671LSep 28 · 11:00W. Jozala1.8313511113W. Buczynski1.831111541LSep 28 · 09:25P. Przewlocki1.73111156123W. Buczynski2.00851111102
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