TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Rutkowski vs Lukasz Jarocki 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111141012118811
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:50 and never touched: 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeLukasz Jarocki to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
8111141012118811
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 7–17 Lukasz Jarocki Mateusz Rutkowski has won 7 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5064.7%Our read58.8%to break even at 1.70
clears by 5.9pp58.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.70 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Jarocki
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-17 in 24
Jarocki
Correct
gap of 10 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1705 vs Jarocki 1750
Jarocki
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 80% vs Jarocki 60%
Rutkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 50% vs Jarocki 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski -1 · Jarocki +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Jarocki) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 2.00 / Jarocki 1.70
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Jarocki)+5.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13221596
Rutkowski2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 120 of 295
Down 0–1, comes back21% 37 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 86
Jarocki1.70
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 102 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it95% 56 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it76% 78 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski3wins
AwayJarocki7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderJarocki leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayJarocki85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski3Jarocki7n = 10Jarocki took 7 of 10
S2Rutkowski3Jarocki7n = 10Jarocki took 7 of 10
S3Rutkowski3Jarocki7n = 10Jarocki took 7 of 10
S4Rutkowski4Jarocki1n = 5Rutkowski took 4 of 5
S5Rutkowski2Jarocki3n = 5Jarocki took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiJarockiR − JBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.642.2−8.6per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiJarockiBasisWin rate · lifetime822 / 1463 vs 790 / 141056.2%56%822 / 1463 vs 790 / 1410Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JarockiRutkowski 2.00/Jarocki 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.7%
Jarocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jarocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 12:10M. Rutkowski38122101132L. Jarocki531011129113
WSep 14 · 11:45M. Rutkowski47611118113L. Jarocki4911991192
LAug 31 · 19:15M. Rutkowski4781191182L. Jarocki47115119113
WAug 10 · 15:00M. Rutkowski49152911123L. Jarocki531311118102
LMay 27 · 20:10M. Rutkowski2274110L. Jarocki351111133
WApr 23 · 17:25M. Rutkowski351111133L. Jarocki2999110
LApr 22 · 19:25M. Rutkowski126240L. Jarocki331111113
LApr 21 · 15:05M. Rutkowski4159111152L. Jarocki49111197113
LApr 12 · 21:10M. Rutkowski1615100L. Jarocki341111123
LApr 2 · 19:00M. Rutkowski29413120L. Jarocki401115143
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 30 · 09:45M. Rutkowski1.98813111282G. Poliniewicz1.731115310113WSep 28 · 13:50M. Rutkowski2.0011101014113K. Kapik1.73512121282WSep 28 · 12:35M. Rutkowski3.9011113113K. Kolodziej1.20781151WSep 28 · 11:20M. Rutkowski1.82711118113K. Wloczko1.8911851192WSep 28 · 10:05M. Sklensky1.5211144652M. Rutkowski2.383121111113LSep 28 · 09:20M. Rutkowski2.12112951D. Kostal1.6571111113LSep 28 · 08:30M. Rutkowski1.8767100K. Kapik1.831111123WSep 28 · 06:50M. Rutkowski1.751111113D. Kostal1.954880LSep 28 · 05:35M. Rutkowski2.601110961M. Sklensky1.4281211113LSep 28 · 04:00M. Rutkowski2.051011781J. Kuzmicz1.6512811113
L. Jarocki10
WSep 30 · 09:20K. Kolodziej1.51105100L. Jarocki2.401211123LSep 30 · 08:05L. Jarocki2.25861171J. Kuzmicz1.5511119113WSep 30 · 06:25A. Spychala2.0071011101L. Jarocki1.7111128123WSep 30 · 05:35G. Poliniewicz2.20691381L. Jarocki1.57111111113LSep 30 · 04:50L. Jarocki1.6589130K. Wisniewski2.101111153LSep 30 · 03:40L. Jarocki1.57871151M. Olbrycht2.2511114113WSep 15 · 13:50M. Sklensky1.7111712942L. Jarocki1.945111011113WSep 15 · 13:00M. Malachowski1.90101430L. Jarocki1.751216113WSep 15 · 12:10L. Jarocki1.731011129113M. Rutkowski1.92122101132LSep 15 · 10:30L. Jarocki1.921191091K. Glazowski1.7391112113
Upcoming Matches
M. Rutkowski
Nothing scheduled
L. Jarocki
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.