TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Milosz Kukawka vs Mikolaj Lukaszewski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Milosz Kukawka
Home
1.27
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
––––––––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:48 and never touched: 74.0% is still 74.0%
Graded at full timeMilosz Kukawka to win
74.0%
74.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
H2H Milosz Kukawka 34–21 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Mikolaj Lukaszewski has won 21 of their 55 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 22h before this match
Lukaszewski beat Kukawka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:4874.0%Our read78.7%to break even at 1.27
short by 4.7pp78.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.27 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (73%)
Kukawka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
34-21 in 55
Kukawka
Correct
gap of 13 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kukawka 1506 vs Lukaszewski 1339
Kukawka
Correct
both rated, 167 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kukawka 60% vs Lukaszewski 80%
Lukaszewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kukawka 40% vs Lukaszewski 80%
Lukaszewski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kukawka +2 · Lukaszewski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Kukawka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukaszewski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (30%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKukawka 1.27 / Lukaszewski 3.35
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Kukawka)-4.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13221580
Kukawka1.27
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 241 of 369
Up 2–0, closes it98% 123 of 126
Up 1–0, closes it85% 193 of 226
Lukaszewski3.35
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 259 of 625
Down 0–1, comes back14% 48 of 335
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 183
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKukawka6wins
AwayLukaszewski4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKukawka leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKukawka83.3%5 of 6
AwayLukaszewski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kukawka6Lukaszewski4n = 10Kukawka took 6 of 10
S2Kukawka1Lukaszewski9n = 10Lukaszewski took 9 of 10
S3Kukawka8Lukaszewski2n = 10Kukawka took 8 of 10
S4Kukawka5Lukaszewski5n = 10split evenly
S5Kukawka4Lukaszewski2n = 6Kukawka took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKukawkaLukaszewskiK − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.443.4+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKukawkaLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime505 / 803 vs 898 / 196862.9%45.6%505 / 803 vs 898 / 1968Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KukawkaKukawka 1.27/Lukaszewski 3.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74%
Kukawka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kukawka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 06:05M. Kukawka4761116772M. Lukaszewski541171411113
LJun 25 · 01:00M. Kukawka36991171M. Lukaszewski3911116113
WJun 24 · 22:35M. Kukawka52991111123M. Lukaszewski49111189102
WJun 20 · 01:25M. Kukawka45115117113M. Lukaszewski4681171192
LJun 19 · 22:55M. Kukawka35951381M. Lukaszewski44111111113
WJun 16 · 23:20M. Kukawka51119911113M. Lukaszewski3971111552
WJun 16 · 21:00M. Kukawka4411913113M. Lukaszewski326111141
WJun 15 · 23:20M. Kukawka52138911113M. Lukaszewski50111111982
WJun 15 · 21:00M. Kukawka4311811133M. Lukaszewski359114111
LJun 3 · 21:10M. Kukawka39114111122M. Lukaszewski46711413113
M. Kukawka10
LOct 1 · 04:55M. Kukawka1.55129611122R. Stapor2.251011114143WSep 30 · 08:35M. Zwolinski3.3541190M. Kukawka1.231113113WSep 30 · 07:20M. Kukawka1.371111113K. Sulkowski2.808770LSep 30 · 06:05M. Lukaszewski3.601171411113M. Kukawka1.2561116772LSep 30 · 04:55R. Stapor2.351311113M. Kukawka1.5311640WSep 30 · 03:25B. Warpas2.7055100M. Kukawka1.411111123LSep 29 · 07:40M. Kukawka1.59912781F. Krcil2.22111011113LSep 29 · 06:30M. Kukawka1.7012117242M. Minda1.951071111113WSep 29 · 05:15M. Kukawka1.45131129113B. Warpas2.50117111192LSep 29 · 04:10A. Sobel1.68111110113M. Kukawka2.05441241
M. Lukaszewski10
LOct 1 · 04:30M. Lukaszewski1.85109110K. Sulkowski1.801211133LSep 30 · 07:40B. Warpas1.8011124113M. Lukaszewski1.807101171WSep 30 · 06:55M. Zwolinski1.95116591M. Lukaszewski1.7591111113WSep 30 · 06:05M. Lukaszewski3.601171411113M. Kukawka1.2561116772WSep 30 · 04:30M. Lukaszewski2.10111178113K. Sulkowski1.6568111172WSep 30 · 03:50R. Stapor1.46118861M. Lukaszewski2.5091111113WSep 26 · 00:10A. Eliasz1.987101181M. Lukaszewski1.7511128113WSep 25 · 23:45M. Lukaszewski2.6011128113K. Klocek1.426101171LSep 25 · 22:55M. Lukaszewski2.006940W. Gluszek1.721111113WSep 25 · 21:05M. Lukaszewski1.95111111113B. Mrugala1.75881391
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