TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mikolaj Lukaszewski vs Bartlomiej Mrugala 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181181113119––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
82 points played in total.
Set by set
1181181113119––
H2H Mikolaj Lukaszewski 13–13 Bartlomiej Mrugala Dead even across their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Lukaszewski beat Mrugala 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mrugala)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrugala form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLukaszewski 1.95 / Mrugala 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mrugala)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13197065
Lukaszewski1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 260 of 638
Down 0–1, comes back14% 48 of 346
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 191
Mrugala1.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 53 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLukaszewski4wins
AwayMrugala6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMrugala leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLukaszewski80%4 of 5
AwayMrugala100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lukaszewski5Mrugala5n = 10split evenly
S2Lukaszewski5Mrugala5n = 10split evenly
S3Lukaszewski4Mrugala6n = 10Mrugala took 6 of 10
S4Lukaszewski3Mrugala4n = 7Mrugala took 4 of 7
S5Lukaszewski1Mrugala2n = 3Mrugala took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLukaszewskiMrugalaL − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.838.7−2.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLukaszewskiMrugalaBasisWin rate · lifetime907 / 2002 vs 319 / 69045.3%46.2%907 / 2002 vs 319 / 690Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrugalaLukaszewski 1.95/Mrugala 1.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mrugala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lukaszewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 15:00M. Lukaszewski3911611113B. Mrugala35611991
LJul 7 · 17:20M. Lukaszewski29612291B. Mrugala43111011113
WJun 3 · 17:55M. Lukaszewski361113123B. Mrugala30911100
LMay 24 · 23:20M. Lukaszewski31811661B. Mrugala3911611113
WMay 24 · 21:00M. Lukaszewski461110113113B. Mrugala4681291162
LMay 24 · 17:45M. Lukaszewski4251111872B. Mrugala46116711113
WMay 6 · 11:45M. Lukaszewski4111118113B. Mrugala35691191
LApr 16 · 09:00M. Lukaszewski4511691182B. Mrugala45711115113
LApr 15 · 09:00M. Lukaszewski214980B. Mrugala331111113
LApr 1 · 19:30M. Lukaszewski2898110B. Mrugala351111133
M. Lukaszewski10
WSep 25 · 20:05D. Szlubowski1.5711711652M. Lukaszewski2.20711511113WSep 25 · 19:20A. Eliasz1.90881191M. Lukaszewski1.7511114113LSep 25 · 17:20W. Gluszek1.931111113M. Lukaszewski1.789870LSep 25 · 16:35P. Strus2.0012137113M. Lukaszewski1.7010111181WSep 25 · 15:00B. Mrugala1.95611991M. Lukaszewski1.7511611113LSep 25 · 08:10M. Lukaszewski1.7085100B. Wisniewski2.001111123WSep 25 · 06:30B. Czerwinski1.3261111992M. Lukaszewski3.05119911113LSep 25 · 05:40R. Stapor1.441211123M. Lukaszewski2.60104100LSep 25 · 04:55M. Lukaszewski1.876990D. Wrobel1.831111113LSep 25 · 03:50M. Lukaszewski2.4656100M. Zagajewski1.421111123
B. Mrugala10
WSep 25 · 20:30B. Mrugala1.71117911113A. Eliasz2.0061111732WSep 25 · 18:55B. Mrugala1.951111113P. Strus1.703560WSep 25 · 17:45B. Mrugala2.356101211113D. Szlubowski1.53111210982WSep 25 · 16:15B. Mrugala1.7011811113W. Gluszek2.05711271LSep 25 · 15:00B. Mrugala1.95611991M. Lukaszewski1.7511611113LSep 25 · 00:10B. Mrugala2.70129381J. Glanowski1.41101111113LSep 24 · 23:20B. Mrugala2.0031170J. Rolak1.731113113WSep 24 · 21:55B. Mrugala1.8011115113P. Krukar1.85991191WSep 24 · 21:30B. Mrugala1.9011116123M. Skorski1.759411101WSep 24 · 20:30B. Mrugala1.9711511113J. Rolak1.76811781
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