TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vedmoch vs Jiri Plachy 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117811119119––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:18 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Vedmoch to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Vedmoch above · Jiri Plachy below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Michal Vedmoch at 56.2%
77 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vedmoch 52–52 Jiri Plachy Dead even across their 104 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:1856.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vedmoch
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
52-52 in 104
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vedmoch 1491 vs Plachy 1471
Vedmoch
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vedmoch 20% vs Plachy 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vedmoch 40% vs Plachy 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vedmoch -4 · Plachy -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Vedmoch) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plachy form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVedmoch 1.666 / Plachy 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Vedmoch)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13221127
Vedmoch1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 191 of 296
Up 2–0, closes it97% 93 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it80% 143 of 179
Plachy2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 138 of 338
Down 0–1, comes back22% 41 of 190
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVedmoch6wins
AwayPlachy4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVedmoch leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVedmoch62.5%5 of 8
AwayPlachyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vedmoch8Plachy2n = 10Vedmoch took 8 of 10
S2Vedmoch3Plachy7n = 10Plachy took 7 of 10
S3Vedmoch6Plachy4n = 10Vedmoch took 6 of 10
S4Vedmoch5Plachy4n = 9Vedmoch took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVedmochPlachyV − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.335.4+3.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVedmochPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime709 / 1341 vs 726 / 157752.9%46%709 / 1341 vs 726 / 1577Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochVedmoch 1.67/Plachy 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Vedmoch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vedmoch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 06:30M. Vedmoch4111811113J. Plachy36711991
LSep 23 · 10:30M. Vedmoch33134881J. Plachy44111111113
LSep 23 · 07:30M. Vedmoch367101451J. Plachy46111212113
WSep 4 · 01:00M. Vedmoch3911611113J. Plachy29411681
WSep 3 · 13:29M. Vedmoch331111113J. Plachy187650
LSep 3 · 12:00M. Vedmoch31117941J. Plachy4291111113
WSep 2 · 13:30M. Vedmoch4011711113J. Plachy25311651
WSep 2 · 10:30M. Vedmoch47111168113J. Plachy3634111172
WSep 2 · 09:30M. Vedmoch4291111113J. Plachy30115861
LSep 2 · 07:30M. Vedmoch51119121182J. Plachy48711145113
M. Vedmoch10
LOct 1 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.444111411113M. Vedmoch2.63117121382LOct 1 · 07:00J. Stolfa1.8381513123M. Vedmoch1.83111311101LSep 28 · 02:00M. Vedmoch2.6311117462V. Cermak1.44761111113LSep 28 · 01:00M. Vedmoch3.501561091D. Tuma1.28131112113LSep 28 · 00:00M. Chlebecek1.44371311113M. Vedmoch2.63111111162LSep 27 · 22:30T. Janata1.5011155113M. Vedmoch2.504131181WSep 27 · 21:00M. Vedmoch1.4861111153L. Krticka2.451135131LSep 27 · 20:00M. Vedmoch1.739450J. Stolfa2.001111113WSep 27 · 19:30L. Krticka2.6396120M. Vedmoch1.441111143LSep 27 · 18:00M. Vedmoch2.5051151192R. Pavelka1.501111133113
J. Plachy10
LOct 1 · 07:30J. Plachy2.75115981P. Zmuda1.4091111113LSep 30 · 01:30J. Plachy2.2511138732R. Pavelka1.577111111113LSep 30 · 00:30K. Darin2.20911119113J. Plachy1.6111941122LSep 29 · 23:30J. Prokupek2.1011119113J. Plachy1.67361181LSep 29 · 22:30J. Plachy2.2071012101V. Postelt1.61111210123WSep 27 · 02:59J. Plachy1.91149911113A. Mikuska1.80121111532LSep 27 · 02:30J. Plachy1.91951191T. Varnuska1.8011116113WSep 27 · 01:30A. Mikuska1.8311851152J. Plachy1.83311119113WSep 27 · 00:00J. Plachy1.441111113M. Kolar2.638590LSep 26 · 23:00J. Dedek1.9111119113J. Plachy1.80881181
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