TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Hrncir vs Martin Sulc 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111012118211––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:52 and never touched: 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeJan Hrncir to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Hrncir above · Martin Sulc below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 72 set 4, 2-11 · our read held Jan Hrncir at 55.7%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jan Hrncir 35–18 Martin Sulc Martin Sulc has won 18 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5255.7%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 2.2pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hrncir
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
35-18 in 53
Hrncir
Wrong
gap of 17 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrncir 1539 vs Sulc 1519
Hrncir
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrncir 60% vs Sulc 0%
Hrncir
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrncir 50% vs Sulc 20%
Hrncir
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrncir -1 · Sulc -8
Sulc
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Hrncir) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulc form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrncir 1.727 / Sulc 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Hrncir)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13221071
Hrncir1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 23 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it71% 20 of 28
Sulc2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 77 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back30% 30 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrncir6wins
AwaySulc4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHrncir leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrncir83.3%5 of 6
AwaySulc75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrncir6Sulc4n = 10Hrncir took 6 of 10
S2Hrncir5Sulc5n = 10split evenly
S3Hrncir3Sulc7n = 10Sulc took 7 of 10
S4Hrncir4Sulc3n = 7Hrncir took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrncirSulcH − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.137.1+1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrncirSulcBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 198 vs 324 / 65155.1%49.8%109 / 198 vs 324 / 651Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrncirHrncir 1.73/Sulc 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Hrncir · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 19:25J. Hrncir341211113M. Sulc2410770
WSep 16 · 18:04J. Hrncir4111811113M. Sulc30511591
LSep 16 · 15:25J. Hrncir33117961M. Sulc4181111113
LSep 10 · 17:25J. Hrncir2511680M. Sulc351311113
LMay 14 · 18:20J. Hrncir3512111111M. Sulc4514711133
WApr 30 · 18:00J. Hrncir4112711113M. Sulc311011461
WApr 30 · 14:55J. Hrncir5711111010153M. Sulc51861212132
LApr 17 · 20:20J. Hrncir2351080M. Sulc341112113
WApr 6 · 21:25J. Hrncir511111511133M. Sulc48138115112
WApr 6 · 19:20J. Hrncir4111118113M. Sulc32861171
J. Hrncir10
LSep 30 · 20:55J. Hrncir1.5779111152J. Hendrych2.25111196113LSep 30 · 19:55J. Hrncir2.00812111052M. Kulisek1.731110912113LSep 23 · 22:23O. Fiklik1.671771111113J. Hrncir2.07151161352WSep 23 · 20:55A. Rek1.57611101152J. Hrncir2.25119126113LSep 23 · 20:25O. Fiklik1.671112143J. Hrncir2.10810120WSep 23 · 19:25J. Hrncir1.831211113M. Sulc1.8310770WSep 16 · 18:04M. Sulc2.10511591J. Hrncir1.6711811113WSep 16 · 16:55J. Volek2.00128100J. Hrncir1.731411123LSep 16 · 16:25A. Kosacky1.441112113J. Hrncir2.6361070LSep 16 · 15:25J. Hrncir1.80117961M. Sulc1.9181111113
M. Sulc10
WSep 30 · 20:25M. Sulc1.401281111113J. Hendrych2.7514119582LSep 29 · 21:18O. Fiklik1.731111123M. Sulc2.0086100LSep 29 · 20:20M. Sulc2.108112101O. Fiklik1.6711911123LSep 29 · 19:20M. Sulc2.25127551M. Kulisek1.57101111113LSep 29 · 18:20M. Sulc3.75814131192A. Kosacky1.251116119113LSep 28 · 13:25V. Hejda Jr1.831213511113M. Sulc1.83141111982LSep 28 · 12:50M. Sulc2.251071181A. Rek1.5712115113LSep 23 · 19:25J. Hrncir1.831211113M. Sulc1.8310770LSep 16 · 18:04M. Sulc2.10511591J. Hrncir1.6711811113WSep 16 · 15:25J. Hrncir1.80117961M. Sulc1.9181111113
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