TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Lysek vs Martin Sobota 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121214118511––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:06 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Lysek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Lysek above · Martin Sobota below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 83 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Jakub Lysek at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Lysek 10–10 Martin Sobota Dead even across their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:0654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sobota
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-10 in 20
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysek 1332 vs Sobota 1243
Lysek
Wrong
both rated, 90 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysek 60% vs Sobota 20%
Lysek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysek 60% vs Sobota 10%
Lysek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysek -1 · Sobota -3
Sobota
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lysek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobota form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysek 1.833 / Sobota 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lysek)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13220879
Lysek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Sobota1.83
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysek6wins
AwaySobota4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLysek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysek100%3 of 3
AwaySobota57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysek3Sobota7n = 10Sobota took 7 of 10
S2Lysek5Sobota5n = 10split evenly
S3Lysek6Sobota4n = 10Lysek took 6 of 10
S4Lysek5Sobota5n = 10split evenly
S5Lysek4Sobota1n = 5Lysek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysekSobotaL − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match45.544.8+0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysekSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 331 vs 80 / 19145.3%41.9%150 / 331 vs 80 / 191Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LysekLysek 1.83/Sobota 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lysek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sobota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 11 · 08:45J. Lysek30391171M. Sobota4011117113
WJul 11 · 06:10J. Lysek4481311123M. Sobota3911117101
WJun 14 · 13:10J. Lysek531111713113M. Sobota51138111182
WJun 14 · 10:10J. Lysek521191011113M. Sobota4481112762
LJun 14 · 06:40J. Lysek37911981M. Sobota4011711113
WJun 7 · 16:45J. Lysek58811208113M. Sobota48114181142
LJun 7 · 13:40J. Lysek53991113112M. Sobota531111711133
LJun 6 · 16:40J. Lysek353121371M. Sobota47111411113
WJun 6 · 16:10J. Lysek4211128113M. Sobota377101191
WMay 31 · 12:10J. Lysek511161310113M. Sobota49811111272
J. Lysek10
LSep 30 · 13:40F. Mandrysz1.731111128113J. Lysek2.0099141142WSep 27 · 20:39J. Lysek1.7313911113J. Oleksik2.001111891WSep 27 · 20:10M. Dolezal1.4071011101J. Lysek2.7511128123WSep 27 · 19:10J. Lysek2.00121011113J. Oleksik1.731012481LSep 27 · 17:40L. Krupnik Jr1.731111113J. Lysek2.005880WSep 25 · 17:10L. Krupnik Jr1.6189100J. Lysek2.201111123WSep 25 · 16:10P. Sturma1.8310149101J. Lysek1.83121211123WSep 25 · 15:10J. Lysek1.9111118113F. Mandrysz1.80461161LSep 25 · 13:40L. Krupnik Jr1.5711146113J. Lysek2.255121191LSep 24 · 16:45L. Zustina1.501111113J. Lysek2.505770
M. Sobota10
LSep 30 · 14:10M. Sobota2.00117981L. Zustina1.7381111113LSep 29 · 08:45J. Matus1.5711116113M. Sobota2.25381141LSep 29 · 08:15M. Sobota1.919860R. Zajac1.801111113WSep 29 · 06:45J. Matus1.5713812682M. Sobota2.2511111011113LSep 29 · 06:15D. Stefek1.5061111113M. Sobota2.50119681LSep 27 · 08:49P. Chvojka1.201111113M. Sobota4.335460LSep 27 · 08:15P. Chvojka1.20111113113M. Sobota4.33691531LSep 27 · 07:15M. Sobota2.20812441I. Jemelka1.61111011113LSep 27 · 05:45J. Sindler1.611114113M. Sobota2.2081200LSep 20 · 12:39L. Krupnik Jr1.61111111113M. Sobota2.20971341
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