TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Mateusz Galus vs Jakub Chojnacki 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115114114––––
Jakub Chojnacki
Away
3.60
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:29 and never touched: 77.8% is still 77.8%
Graded at full timeMateusz Galus to win
77.8%
77.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
46 points played in total.
Set by set
115114114––––
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2977.8%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 5.5pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (75%)
Galus
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Galus 1584 vs Chojnacki 1446
Galus
Correct
both rated, 138 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Galus 0% vs Chojnacki 0%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Galus 20% vs Chojnacki 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Galus -5 · Chojnacki -7
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% · Strong (leans Galus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chojnacki form (0%) is below what odds imply (28%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGalus 1.20 / Chojnacki 3.60
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Galus)-5.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13220863
Galus1.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 128 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it99% 68 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it78% 96 of 123
Chojnacki3.60
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricGalusChojnackiBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 669 vs 5 / 1452.6%35.7%352 / 669 vs 5 / 14Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
Forecastthe model predicts this market
Match Winner
GalusGalus 1.20/Chojnacki 3.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.8%
Galus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Galus won
Handicap · Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Galus10
LSep 30 · 07:30S. Wloszek2.401115814123M. Galus1.506131116102LSep 30 · 07:00M. Galus1.626119101S. Radlo2.0211811123LSep 24 · 12:30M. Galus1.399111161B. Fraczek2.8011135113LSep 24 · 12:00J. Masternak3.081211143M. Galus1.33108120LSep 24 · 10:30M. Galus2.34521181P. Gola1.5411118113WSep 24 · 08:30B. Fraczek2.601241171M. Galus1.4114116113LSep 24 · 06:30S. Wloszek2.4011911113M. Galus1.50711781LSep 24 · 05:30M. Lysakowski1.66141211113M. Galus2.101214471WSep 23 · 13:40D. Stapor2.126730M. Galus1.571111113LSep 23 · 11:30M. Galus1.6511611872D. Stapor2.10511711113
J. Chojnacki10
LSep 30 · 06:30B. Molka1.231211113J. Chojnacki3.9010860LSep 30 · 05:30S. Wloszek1.271111113J. Chojnacki3.508860LSep 29 · 12:30J. Chojnacki—471191S. Wloszek—11118113LSep 29 · 11:00S. Radlo1.311311811123J. Chojnacki3.201191113102LSep 29 · 10:00J. Chojnacki4.60461291M. Lysakowski1.17111110113LSep 29 · 09:00J. Chojnacki3.207760P. Gola1.311111113LSep 29 · 07:30J. Chojnacki3.7034131172D. Stapor1.251111115113WSep 29 · 05:30J. Chojnacki—11612113S. Wloszek—7111071WSep 28 · 13:10J. Chojnacki1.9112111113P. Gola1.801081171WSep 28 · 12:00J. Chojnacki1.4211112113M. Lysakowski2.70981191
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