TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Zwolinski vs Mikolaj Lukaszewski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119611511911––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:49 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMikolaj Lukaszewski to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
119611511911––
H2H Mariusz Zwolinski 4–4 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4954.9%Our read57.1%to break even at 1.75
short by 2.2pp57.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.75 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Lukaszewski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zwolinski 1290 vs Lukaszewski 1355
Lukaszewski
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zwolinski 40% vs Lukaszewski 100%
Lukaszewski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zwolinski 40% vs Lukaszewski 80%
Lukaszewski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zwolinski -1 · Lukaszewski +5
Lukaszewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Lukaszewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukaszewski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZwolinski 1.95 / Lukaszewski 1.75
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Lukaszewski)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13220660
Zwolinski1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 55 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back21% 21 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 56
Lukaszewski1.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 96 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it96% 44 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it82% 79 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeZwolinski4wins
AwayLukaszewski4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZwolinski75%3 of 4
AwayLukaszewski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zwolinski4Lukaszewski4n = 8split evenly
S2Zwolinski4Lukaszewski4n = 8split evenly
S3Zwolinski4Lukaszewski4n = 8split evenly
S4Zwolinski5Lukaszewski1n = 6Zwolinski took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricZwolinskiLukaszewskiZ − LBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match39.238.8+0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZwolinskiLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 393 vs 901 / 197436.9%45.6%145 / 393 vs 901 / 1974Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LukaszewskiZwolinski 1.95/Lukaszewski 1.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Lukaszewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lukaszewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 30 · 06:55M. Zwolinski31116591M. Lukaszewski4291111113
WSep 23 · 07:20M. Zwolinski4211911113M. Lukaszewski36911791
WSep 21 · 03:00M. Zwolinski361111143M. Lukaszewski2484120
WSep 9 · 05:40M. Zwolinski4791116113M. Lukaszewski391191451
LSep 2 · 03:50M. Zwolinski4155111192M. Lukaszewski43111146113
LAug 19 · 04:10M. Zwolinski3491690M. Lukaszewski401118113
WAug 2 · 09:00M. Zwolinski3711114113M. Lukaszewski31971141
LAug 2 · 07:40M. Zwolinski4651481272M. Lukaszewski5511121110113
M. Zwolinski10
LSep 30 · 05:40M. Zwolinski2.40116581R. Stapor1.4791111113WSep 30 · 04:10M. Zwolinski2.201111113B. Warpas1.617760LSep 30 · 03:00M. Zwolinski2.0591190K. Sulkowski1.651113113LSep 23 · 13:55W. Iwasyszyn1.881211113M. Zwolinski1.7310390WSep 23 · 13:10A. Szoltysek1.8014119692M. Zwolinski1.851281111113LSep 23 · 12:30M. Zwolinski3.30461191R. Stapor1.2911119113LSep 23 · 10:35M. Zwolinski2.04111113832M. Minda1.701381111113WSep 23 · 09:50J. Zochniak1.93961191M. Zwolinski1.7911116113LSep 23 · 08:35W. Iwasyszyn1.9311115143M. Zwolinski1.788811121WSep 23 · 07:20M. Zwolinski1.9511911113M. Lukaszewski1.75911791
M. Lukaszewski10
WSep 30 · 06:05M. Lukaszewski3.601171411113M. Kukawka1.2561116772WSep 30 · 04:30M. Lukaszewski2.10111178113K. Sulkowski1.6568111172WSep 30 · 03:50R. Stapor1.46118861M. Lukaszewski2.5091111113WSep 26 · 00:10A. Eliasz1.987101181M. Lukaszewski1.7511128113WSep 25 · 23:45M. Lukaszewski2.6011128113K. Klocek1.426101171LSep 25 · 22:55M. Lukaszewski2.006940W. Gluszek1.721111113WSep 25 · 21:05M. Lukaszewski1.95111111113B. Mrugala1.75881391WSep 25 · 20:05D. Szlubowski1.5711711652M. Lukaszewski2.20711511113WSep 25 · 19:20A. Eliasz1.90881191M. Lukaszewski1.7511114113LSep 23 · 07:20M. Zwolinski1.9511911113M. Lukaszewski1.75911791
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