TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Mateusz Galus vs Szymon Radlo 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111189111012––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:59 and never touched: 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeMateusz Galus to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
6111189111012––
H2H Mateusz Galus 27–30 Szymon Radlo Mateusz Galus has won 27 of their 57 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5956.1%Our read61.7%to break even at 1.62
short by 5.6pp61.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.62 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (55%)
Galus
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-30 in 57
Radlo
Correct
gap of 3 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Galus 1610 vs Radlo 1518
Galus
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Galus 20% vs Radlo 40%
Radlo
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Galus 40% vs Radlo 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Galus -3 · Radlo -2
Galus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Galus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Galus form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGalus 1.62 / Radlo 2.02
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Galus)-5.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13220635
Galus1.62
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 24)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 128 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it99% 68 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it78% 96 of 123
Radlo2.02
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog50% won 169 of 340
Down 0–1, comes back22% 35 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGalus6wins
AwayRadlo4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGalus leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGalus85.7%6 of 7
AwayRadlo100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Galus7Radlo3n = 10Galus took 7 of 10
S2Galus7Radlo3n = 10Galus took 7 of 10
S3Galus5Radlo5n = 10split evenly
S4Galus6Radlo2n = 8Galus took 6 of 8
S5Galus0Radlo3n = 3Radlo took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGalusRadloG − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.239.2+4.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGalusRadloBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 679 vs 392 / 79553%49.3%360 / 679 vs 392 / 795Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GalusGalus 1.62/Radlo 2.02
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Galus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Radlo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 09:30M. Galus4113611113S. Radlo361111771
WSep 17 · 07:30M. Galus331111113S. Radlo199460
WSep 10 · 08:30M. Galus4614912113S. Radlo3712111041
WAug 31 · 08:30M. Galus4211119113S. Radlo22251141
LAug 30 · 17:05M. Galus46811611102S. Radlo49117118123
LAug 27 · 11:30M. Galus356111261S. Radlo45111310113
LAug 25 · 11:30M. Galus4914118792S. Radlo541291111113
LAug 20 · 05:30M. Galus55911714142S. Radlo591191112163
WAug 18 · 07:30M. Galus48111115113S. Radlo44991791
WAug 4 · 11:00M. Galus371113133S. Radlo27511110
M. Galus10
LSep 24 · 12:30M. Galus1.399111161B. Fraczek2.8011135113LSep 24 · 12:00J. Masternak3.081211143M. Galus1.33108120LSep 24 · 10:30M. Galus2.34521181P. Gola1.5411118113WSep 24 · 08:30B. Fraczek2.601241171M. Galus1.4114116113LSep 24 · 06:30S. Wloszek2.4011911113M. Galus1.50711781LSep 24 · 05:30M. Lysakowski1.66141211113M. Galus2.101214471WSep 23 · 13:40D. Stapor2.126730M. Galus1.571111113LSep 23 · 11:30M. Galus1.6511611872D. Stapor2.10511711113WSep 23 · 09:30S. Radlo2.101111771M. Galus1.6513611113WSep 23 · 08:30M. Galus1.521111123M. Stepien2.3579100
S. Radlo10
LSep 30 · 06:00S. Radlo1.721118111692J. Masternak2.0113161314113LSep 29 · 13:00D. Stapor1.911315115113S. Radlo1.80151351192WSep 29 · 11:00S. Radlo1.311311811123J. Chojnacki3.201191113102WSep 29 · 09:30S. Radlo2.23161211113D. Stapor1.591810791LSep 29 · 08:00S. Radlo2.556118111M. Lysakowski1.4611911133LSep 29 · 06:30S. Radlo1.9811516101S. Wloszek1.73131114123LSep 29 · 05:00S. Radlo1.93811741P. Gola1.7911411113LSep 28 · 13:40D. Stapor1.80111112143S. Radlo1.9171310121WSep 28 · 11:30S. Radlo1.98111112113B. Molka1.751391081LSep 23 · 09:30S. Radlo2.101111771M. Galus1.6513611113
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