TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marian Brunner vs Jakub Skorupa 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711116611119711
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:08 and never touched: 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
90 points played in total.
Set by set
711116611119711
H2H Marian Brunner 7–20 Jakub Skorupa Marian Brunner has won 7 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Brunner beat Skorupa 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (64%)
Skorupa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-20 in 27
Skorupa
Correct
gap of 13 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brunner 1281 vs Skorupa 1351
Skorupa
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brunner 40% vs Skorupa 60%
Skorupa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brunner 50% vs Skorupa 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brunner +1 · Skorupa +3
Skorupa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Skorupa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrunner 2.60 / Skorupa 1.44
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Skorupa)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13219798
Brunner2.60
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 51 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Skorupa1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 154 of 231
Up 2–0, closes it93% 74 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it75% 102 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrunner2wins
AwaySkorupa8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkorupa leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrunner20%1 of 5
AwaySkorupa80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brunner5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S2Brunner4Skorupa6n = 10Skorupa took 6 of 10
S3Brunner2Skorupa8n = 10Skorupa took 8 of 10
S4Brunner4Skorupa2n = 6Brunner took 4 of 6
S5Brunner0Skorupa4n = 4Skorupa took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrunnerSkorupaB − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.039.4−5.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrunnerSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime281 / 578 vs 335 / 70148.6%47.8%281 / 578 vs 335 / 701Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkorupaBrunner 2.60/Skorupa 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.2%
Skorupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 17:30M. Brunner4161311113J. Skorupa351111581
LSep 16 · 00:20M. Brunner2688100J. Skorupa341111123
LSep 15 · 20:20M. Brunner206590J. Skorupa331111113
LAug 5 · 04:20M. Brunner3941241182J. Skorupa511110118113
LAug 4 · 18:45M. Brunner4611881182J. Skorupa47711117113
LJul 22 · 04:20M. Brunner135260J. Skorupa331111113
LJul 21 · 18:45M. Brunner361178101J. Skorupa4281111123
LJul 15 · 00:20M. Brunner48111187112J. Skorupa48761111133
WJul 14 · 20:20M. Brunner331111113J. Skorupa279990
LJul 8 · 02:45M. Brunner38111041122J. Skorupa44612114113
M. Brunner10
WSep 30 · 00:20K. Kwiatkowski1.70111153112M. Brunner2.00871111133LSep 29 · 23:05M. Brunner4.058440G. Mucha1.181111113LSep 29 · 21:30M. Brunner2.0052120P. Gesiarz1.701111143WSep 29 · 20:20M. Brunner1.751311123K. Kwiatkowski1.97114100LSep 29 · 18:45M. Brunner2.80144110A. Fomin1.351611133WSep 29 · 17:30M. Brunner1.8061311113J. Skorupa1.911111581WSep 23 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.529380M. Brunner2.371111113LSep 23 · 03:30J. Michalik1.7514119113M. Brunner1.951231171LSep 23 · 02:45M. Brunner2.05611791M. Karpiuk1.5611611113WSep 23 · 01:10M. Brunner2.061110911113M. Baran1.5551211692
J. Skorupa10
WSep 29 · 23:30J. Michalik1.80914991J. Skorupa1.85111211113WSep 29 · 22:40K. Kwiatkowski1.755611101J. Skorupa1.9511119123WSep 29 · 21:55G. Mucha1.836712121J. Skorupa1.87111110143LSep 29 · 19:55A. Fomin1.3611129133J. Skorupa2.9031011111LSep 29 · 19:10P. Gesiarz2.2961111113J. Skorupa1.56117681LSep 29 · 17:30M. Brunner1.8061311113J. Skorupa1.911111581WSep 25 · 02:10J. Skorupa1.8011117113J. Michalik1.91871151LSep 25 · 00:35A. Fomin1.4411811113J. Skorupa2.63711521LSep 24 · 23:45K. Kwiatkowski1.671114113J. Skorupa2.1041290LSep 24 · 22:55J. Skorupa2.001111991M. Karpiuk1.7361311113
Upcoming Matches
M. Brunner
Nothing scheduled
J. Skorupa
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