TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Derevynskyi vs Oleksandr Melashenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161191012116––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:57 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Derevynskyi above · Oleksandr Melashenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 76 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 60.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Derevynskyi 51–26 Oleksandr Melashenko Oleksandr Melashenko has won 26 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:5760.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
51-26 in 77
Derevynskyi
Correct
gap of 25 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevynskyi 1591 vs Melashenko 1550
Derevynskyi
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevynskyi 60% vs Melashenko 20%
Derevynskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevynskyi 50% vs Melashenko 30%
Derevynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevynskyi -1 · Melashenko -4
Melashenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Derevynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevynskyi 1.571 / Melashenko 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Derevynskyi)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219081
Derevynskyi1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 199 of 338
Up 2–0, closes it91% 94 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it73% 143 of 196
Melashenko2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 27)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 105 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back19% 31 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevynskyi8wins
AwayMelashenko2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevynskyi83.3%5 of 6
AwayMelashenko25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevynskyi6Melashenko4n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Derevynskyi8Melashenko2n = 10Derevynskyi took 8 of 10
S3Derevynskyi5Melashenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Derevynskyi5Melashenko3n = 8Derevynskyi took 5 of 8
S5Derevynskyi3Melashenko1n = 4Derevynskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDerevynskyiMelashenkoD − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.936.1+6.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDerevynskyiMelashenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime479 / 880 vs 430 / 86154.4%49.9%479 / 880 vs 430 / 861Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiDerevynskyi 1.57/Melashenko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 03:35D. Derevynskyi4112117113O. Melashenko281021151
WSep 24 · 13:55D. Derevynskyi52911912113O. Melashenko44118111042
WSep 15 · 16:25D. Derevynskyi331111113O. Melashenko196760
LSep 12 · 03:35D. Derevynskyi541211138102O. Melashenko571491111123
WSep 5 · 03:35D. Derevynskyi43111119113O. Melashenko4478111172
WSep 2 · 00:05D. Derevynskyi4011711113O. Melashenko28611561
WAug 22 · 01:05D. Derevynskyi43101111113O. Melashenko29125931
WAug 14 · 23:35D. Derevynskyi521011812113O. Melashenko47129111052
LAug 5 · 18:25D. Derevynskyi38138981O. Melashenko44111111113
WJul 29 · 13:55D. Derevynskyi331111113O. Melashenko216870
D. Derevynskyi10
LSep 30 · 22:35D. Derevynskyi1.801111100R. Gnoevoy1.911313123LSep 28 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.83771111113D. Derevynskyi1.8311115862WSep 28 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.731115133S. Skachenko2.00513110LSep 28 · 00:55O. Naida2.1011114113D. Derevynskyi1.67381191WSep 27 · 22:55R. Gnoevoy1.83211581D. Derevynskyi1.8311811113WSep 27 · 21:55V. Khamurda1.913890D. Derevynskyi1.801111113WSep 26 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.201021151D. Derevynskyi1.6112117113LSep 26 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.501111113D. Derevynskyi2.505690LSep 26 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.10711119113D. Derevynskyi1.6711881182LSep 25 · 23:05V. Lobas1.4011123113D. Derevynskyi2.756101161
O. Melashenko10
LSep 30 · 23:05S. Abalmaz1.501111113O. Melashenko2.509370LSep 27 · 04:05O. Melashenko3.75101190Y. Krol1.251213113LSep 27 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.911311117123O. Melashenko1.80151911102LSep 27 · 00:05V. Lobas1.36118811113O. Melashenko3.0041111382LSep 26 · 23:05O. Melashenko1.53121165142M. Marchuk2.381061111163WSep 26 · 22:05V. Kobets2.20111183102O. Melashenko1.61981111123LSep 26 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.201021151D. Derevynskyi1.6112117113LSep 26 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2512119113O. Melashenko3.751071191WSep 26 · 00:35O. Melashenko1.911211113O. Gomilko1.8010480WSep 25 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.7311711141O. Melashenko2.0013117163
Upcoming Matches
D. Derevynskyi
O. Melashenko
Oct 1 · 01:05O. Melashenko2.38T. Ponomarenko1.53—Oct 1 · 02:35O. Melashenko3.00R. Gnoevoy1.36—Oct 1 · 03:35O. Melashenko1.80O. Naida1.91—Oct 1 · 22:25O. Melashenko1.80O. Naida1.91—Oct 1 · 23:55O. Melashenko2.00V. Khamurda1.73—Oct 2 · 00:55O. Melashenko2.50S. Abalmaz1.50—Oct 2 · 01:55O. Melashenko—V. Panasenko——Oct 2 · 03:55O. Melashenko3.00R. Gnoevoy1.36—
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