TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Filipek vs Robert Jamrich 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1181113811711––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:22 and never touched: 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Filipek to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Filipek above · Robert Jamrich below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 80 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Martin Filipek at 56.9%
80 points played in total.
H2H Martin Filipek 4–3 Robert Jamrich Robert Jamrich has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2256.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Filipek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filipek 1598 vs Jamrich 1450
Filipek
Wrong
both rated, 148 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filipek 80% vs Jamrich 40%
Filipek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filipek 80% vs Jamrich 60%
Filipek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Filipek +4 · Jamrich +1
Filipek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Filipek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filipek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilipek 1.727 / Jamrich 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Filipek)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13218579
Filipek1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 29)
Won last 4
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite59% won 51 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it78% 39 of 50
Jamrich2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 25 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeFilipek4wins
AwayJamrich3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderFilipek leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilipek80%4 of 5
AwayJamrichn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filipek5Jamrich2n = 7Filipek took 5 of 7
S2Filipek2Jamrich5n = 7Jamrich took 5 of 7
S3Filipek3Jamrich4n = 7Jamrich took 4 of 7
S4Filipek4Jamrich2n = 6Filipek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricFilipekJamrichF − JBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match38.939.4−0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilipekJamrichBasisWin rate · lifetime269 / 598 vs 136 / 30245%45%269 / 598 vs 136 / 302Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FilipekFilipek 1.73/Jamrich 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.9%
Filipek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jamrich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 23 · 07:25M. Filipek46111167113R. Jamrich4669111192
LAug 19 · 14:03M. Filipek303116101R. Jamrich4111711123
LAug 19 · 12:55M. Filipek2769120R. Jamrich361111143
WAug 12 · 14:00M. Filipek4412611153R. Jamrich3910115131
WAug 12 · 12:25M. Filipek4211911113R. Jamrich35611991
WAug 11 · 16:50M. Filipek3911611113R. Jamrich30611851
LAug 5 · 07:25M. Filipek4411591182R. Jamrich49711119113
M. Filipek10
LSep 30 · 12:55P. Chlumsky2.0011118113M. Filipek1.73391151LSep 30 · 12:25F. Marat1.7311811113M. Filipek2.00911781WSep 29 · 10:30M. Filipek1.601312113A. Kral2.20111090WSep 29 · 08:55J. Srnka1.73891211102M. Filipek2.001111105123WSep 29 · 08:25A. Kral2.208860M. Filipek1.611111113WSep 29 · 07:25M. Filipek2.101111113F. Marat1.673680LSep 23 · 10:30A. Kral1.91261111113M. Filipek1.8011118392LSep 23 · 09:25M. Filipek1.73911861A. Kral2.0011811113WSep 23 · 07:55F. Balcar1.91612101152M. Filipek1.801110127113WSep 23 · 07:25R. Jamrich1.8369111192M. Filipek1.83111167113
R. Jamrich10
LSep 30 · 13:25R. Jamrich1.831011115132F. Marat1.83125911153LSep 30 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.911115113R. Jamrich1.8091360WSep 28 · 18:10O. Varecka2.0011351192R. Jamrich1.73911115113LSep 28 · 17:25R. Jamrich2.2511123392J. Kulveit1.578101111113WSep 28 · 15:55O. Varecka1.57711581R. Jamrich2.2511611113LSep 28 · 15:25J. Melichar1.441212113R. Jamrich2.63101080LSep 27 · 10:29J. Kulveit1.5711511113R. Jamrich2.25711881LSep 27 · 08:55J. Kulveit1.61311134113R. Jamrich2.20115111192WSep 27 · 08:25A. Kral1.9191111772R. Jamrich1.80116711113LSep 23 · 07:25R. Jamrich1.8369111192M. Filipek1.83111167113
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