TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Marcel Pikous vs Mark Robin Wagner 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111214117116119
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMarcel Pikous to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Pikous above · Mark Robin Wagner below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 98 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Marcel Pikous at 55.8%
98 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Pikous 1–0 Mark Robin Wagner Mark Robin Wagner has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:52What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Pikous
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pikous 1598 vs Wagner 1614
Wagner
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pikous 40% vs Wagner 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pikous 50% vs Wagner 30%
Pikous
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pikous -1 · Wagner +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Pikous) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pikous form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPikous 1.67 / Wagner 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Pikous)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13216990
Pikous1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 105 of 184
Up 2–0, closes it90% 55 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it78% 76 of 97
Wagner2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 35 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back32% 12 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePikous1wins
AwayWagner0wins
Pikous leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPikousWagnerP − WBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match42.031.0+11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPikousWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 698 vs 101 / 19652.6%51.5%367 / 698 vs 101 / 196Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PikousPikous 1.67/Wagner 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Pikous · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pikous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJul 28 · 00:00M. Pikous4291111113M. Wagner31117851
M. Pikous10
LSep 29 · 15:30P. Saleny1.5311118113M. Pikous2.38771161WSep 29 · 14:30M. Pikous1.3615611113J. Zuzanek3.001311541LSep 28 · 16:58J. Tazler1.6713117113M. Pikous2.101161121LSep 28 · 16:00M. Pikous1.8314760J. Tazler1.831611113WSep 28 · 15:30M. Regner2.207570M. Pikous1.611111113LSep 28 · 14:00M. Pikous1.916390J. Louda1.801111113WSep 28 · 02:58M. Pikous2.001111123J. Louda1.7375100WSep 28 · 02:30M. Pikous2.0011711113J. Louda1.73411591LSep 28 · 01:30P. Pycha2.10111168113M. Pikous1.6776111172WSep 28 · 00:00M. Pikous1.2511137113S. Kadavy3.756111141
M. Wagner10
WSep 29 · 15:00J. Zuzanek2.38511131192M. Wagner1.53115159113LSep 29 · 14:30M. Wagner1.8311914772P. Saleny1.839111211113LSep 25 · 02:00O. Svacha1.671111113M. Wagner2.101570LSep 25 · 00:30M. Wagner1.8071351132J. Ruzicka1.911111118113WSep 24 · 23:00M. Wagner3.40411411113A. Barton1.3011611862LSep 24 · 22:00R. Urbaniec1.6111119113M. Wagner2.20991131LSep 23 · 13:00M. Wagner2.1012691192O. Svacha1.671011115113WSep 23 · 12:00M. Wagner2.38111110123J. Simecek1.535412101LSep 23 · 11:30R. Urbaniec1.731111113M. Wagner2.004370LSep 23 · 10:00M. Wagner1.911111851O. Svacha1.8051311113
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