TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
David Szotek vs Michal Chalupa 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151315119115––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:24 and never touched: 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Michal Chalupa @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingDavid Szotek above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 80 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Michal Chalupa at 59.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H David Szotek 20–20 Michal Chalupa Dead even across their 40 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:2459.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chalupa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-20 in 40
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szotek 1655 vs Chalupa 1737
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szotek 100% vs Chalupa 80%
Szotek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szotek 70% vs Chalupa 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szotek +6 · Chalupa +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Chalupa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotek 2.10 / Chalupa 1.666
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Chalupa)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216983
Szotek2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 53 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back28% 18 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Chalupa1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 124 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it77% 88 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzotek5wins
AwayChalupa5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzotek71.4%5 of 7
AwayChalupa100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotek7Chalupa3n = 10Szotek took 7 of 10
S2Szotek5Chalupa5n = 10split evenly
S3Szotek3Chalupa7n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S4Szotek4Chalupa3n = 7Szotek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzotekChalupaS − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.337.6−1.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotekChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 344 vs 399 / 75043.9%53.2%151 / 344 vs 399 / 750Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaSzotek 2.10/Chalupa 1.67
Miss
What we said
59%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Michal Chalupa @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Szotek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 20:00D. Szotek4211911113M. Chalupa28911531
WSep 26 · 20:00D. Szotek4211119113M. Chalupa30291181
WSep 24 · 19:30D. Szotek471112211113M. Chalupa5091411792
LSep 22 · 14:00D. Szotek167360M. Chalupa331111113
LSep 21 · 20:00D. Szotek426111871M. Chalupa4711520113
WSep 13 · 17:00D. Szotek361111143M. Chalupa2567120
WSep 13 · 15:30D. Szotek371115113M. Chalupa3091380
LSep 10 · 20:58D. Szotek3611621342M. Chalupa484111111113
LSep 10 · 19:00D. Szotek30127921M. Chalupa43101111113
LSep 9 · 18:00D. Szotek3541110101M. Chalupa4211712123
D. Szotek10
WSep 30 · 19:00D. Szotek2.204101112113R. Hudeczek1.61111261062WSep 30 · 18:00M. Wollny1.536511101D. Szotek2.3811119123WSep 28 · 21:30D. Szotek1.67111112113M. Holub2.109131081WSep 28 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.44911531D. Szotek2.6311911113WSep 28 · 19:00M. Holub2.001316681D. Szotek1.73151411113WSep 28 · 18:30D. Szotek2.251113115123T. Kypr1.57715811102LSep 27 · 16:59D. Szotek1.91881141T. Kypr1.8011119113WSep 27 · 16:00D. Szotek2.0071111113T. Kypr1.73119781LSep 27 · 15:30D. Unzeitig2.501191011113D. Szotek1.5071112752LSep 27 · 14:00D. Szotek1.73411761Z. Pagac2.0011911113
M. Chalupa10
WSep 30 · 19:30M. Chalupa3.7511115113M. Wollny1.25481171WSep 30 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.911110891M. Chalupa1.8091211113WSep 28 · 20:59M. Chalupa1.6711119123T. Kypr2.107911101LSep 28 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.44911531D. Szotek2.6311911113WSep 28 · 19:30T. Kypr2.0010118121M. Chalupa1.7312911143LSep 28 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.5311124652M. Holub2.388101111113WSep 26 · 21:00M. Chalupa1.4011115113Z. Pagac2.75971181LSep 26 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.67291181D. Szotek2.1011119113WSep 26 · 19:30Z. Pagac2.6310940M. Chalupa1.441211113LSep 26 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.57121451042T. Kypr2.2510121112113
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