TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Stapor vs Mikolaj Lukaszewski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811811611––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:43 and never touched: 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
119811811611––
H2H Rafal Stapor 26–16 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Mikolaj Lukaszewski has won 16 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:4366.3%Our read68.5%to break even at 1.46
short by 2.2pp68.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.46 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (63%)
Stapor
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-16 in 42
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 10 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1418 vs Lukaszewski 1301
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 118 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 40% vs Lukaszewski 80%
Lukaszewski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 50% vs Lukaszewski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -2 · Lukaszewski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Stapor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukaszewski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.46 / Lukaszewski 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Stapor)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13216736
Stapor1.46
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 382 of 610
Up 2–0, closes it96% 196 of 205
Up 1–0, closes it80% 293 of 365
Lukaszewski2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 26)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 259 of 633
Down 0–1, comes back14% 47 of 342
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 187
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor7wins
AwayLukaszewski3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor100%4 of 4
AwayLukaszewski50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor4Lukaszewski6n = 10Lukaszewski took 6 of 10
S2Stapor8Lukaszewski2n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S3Stapor8Lukaszewski2n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S4Stapor4Lukaszewski3n = 7Stapor took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporLukaszewskiS − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.433.1+6.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime704 / 1246 vs 906 / 199656.5%45.4%704 / 1246 vs 906 / 1996Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.46/Lukaszewski 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lukaszewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 05:40R. Stapor351211123M. Lukaszewski24104100
WSep 24 · 08:10R. Stapor4011711113M. Lukaszewski25411911
WSep 23 · 04:30R. Stapor4291111113M. Lukaszewski30117841
LSep 22 · 08:10R. Stapor33811771M. Lukaszewski3811511113
WSep 21 · 08:10R. Stapor541291111113M. Lukaszewski5014117992
LSep 3 · 03:25R. Stapor37713891M. Lukaszewski44111111113
WJun 11 · 10:10R. Stapor351111133M. Lukaszewski2274110
LJun 10 · 04:30R. Stapor4391111842M. Lukaszewski49117911113
WMay 27 · 07:05R. Stapor4291111113M. Lukaszewski33117871
WMay 27 · 04:35R. Stapor331111113M. Lukaszewski164660
R. Stapor10
WSep 30 · 05:40M. Zwolinski2.40116581R. Stapor1.4791111113WSep 30 · 04:55R. Stapor2.351311113M. Kukawka1.5311640LSep 28 · 08:10R. Stapor2.308990M. Kukawka1.521111113LSep 28 · 06:30M. Trela1.901311113R. Stapor1.8111970WSep 28 · 05:40J. Zochniak1.491161191R. Stapor2.5013117113WSep 28 · 05:00R. Stapor1.471111113B. Warpas2.509350LSep 28 · 03:50R. Stapor2.20121111442A. Sobel1.601061311113LSep 25 · 08:35R. Stapor1.421131291D. Wrobel2.5581114113WSep 25 · 06:55R. Stapor1.511111113M. Zagajewski2.405850WSep 25 · 05:40R. Stapor1.441211123M. Lukaszewski2.60104100
M. Lukaszewski10
WSep 30 · 04:30M. Lukaszewski2.10111178113K. Sulkowski1.6568111172WSep 26 · 00:10A. Eliasz1.987101181M. Lukaszewski1.7511128113WSep 25 · 23:45M. Lukaszewski2.6011128113K. Klocek1.426101171LSep 25 · 22:55M. Lukaszewski2.006940W. Gluszek1.721111113WSep 25 · 21:05M. Lukaszewski1.95111111113B. Mrugala1.75881391WSep 25 · 20:05D. Szlubowski1.5711711652M. Lukaszewski2.20711511113WSep 25 · 19:20A. Eliasz1.90881191M. Lukaszewski1.7511114113LSep 25 · 17:20W. Gluszek1.931111113M. Lukaszewski1.789870LSep 25 · 16:35P. Strus2.0012137113M. Lukaszewski1.7010111181LSep 25 · 05:40R. Stapor1.441211123M. Lukaszewski2.60104100
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