TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Regner vs Karel Schopf 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411311117811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:22 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeKarel Schopf to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Karel Schopf below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 66 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Karel Schopf at 55.1%
66 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 11–20 Karel Schopf Michal Regner has won 11 of their 31 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Regner beat Schopf 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:22What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (57%)
Schopf
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-20 in 31
Schopf
Correct
gap of 9 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1641 vs Schopf 1622
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 80% vs Schopf 40%
Regner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 60% vs Schopf 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +4 · Schopf -2
Regner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Schopf) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schopf form (40%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 2.15 / Schopf 1.63
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Schopf)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13214671
Regner2.15
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 111 of 246
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 70
Schopf1.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 47 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it83% 33 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner4wins
AwaySchopf6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSchopf leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner33.3%2 of 6
AwaySchopf50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner6Schopf4n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S2Regner4Schopf6n = 10Schopf took 6 of 10
S3Regner3Schopf7n = 10Schopf took 7 of 10
S4Regner4Schopf5n = 9Schopf took 5 of 9
S5Regner2Schopf2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerSchopfR − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.339.5−2.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerSchopfBasisWin rate · lifetime520 / 1068 vs 233 / 46748.7%49.9%520 / 1068 vs 233 / 467Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchopfRegner 2.15/Schopf 1.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.1%
Schopf · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Schopf won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 02:30M. Regner4011711113K. Schopf28711371
WSep 8 · 13:29M. Regner51991111113K. Schopf4411118772
WSep 8 · 12:30M. Regner44101211113K. Schopf321210551
LSep 5 · 23:30M. Regner45118511102K. Schopf46511117123
LAug 4 · 11:30M. Regner29118551K. Schopf3961111113
LJul 22 · 03:28M. Regner33115891K. Schopf4071111113
LJul 22 · 01:00M. Regner47111171172K. Schopf50691113113
LJun 23 · 23:00M. Regner167540K. Schopf331111113
WJun 7 · 23:00M. Regner43111281113K. Schopf46710111172
LMay 11 · 22:00M. Regner25311651K. Schopf3711411113
M. Regner10
WSep 29 · 02:30K. Schopf1.57711371M. Regner2.2511711113WSep 29 · 01:00M. Sychra2.00911781M. Regner1.7311811113WSep 28 · 23:30M. Regner1.611111133M. Vizek2.2089110WSep 28 · 22:00M. Regner2.001111113V. Dvorak1.736460LSep 28 · 17:30M. Regner1.8361391172J. Louda1.831111118113WSep 28 · 16:30J. Louda1.838470M. Regner1.831111113LSep 28 · 15:30M. Regner2.207570M. Pikous1.611111113WSep 28 · 14:30J. Tazler1.67101161172M. Regner2.10129116113LSep 27 · 02:00M. Klement1.8311511113M. Regner1.83711881LSep 27 · 00:30M. Regner1.80116981J. Tazler1.9181111113
K. Schopf10
LSep 29 · 02:30K. Schopf1.57711371M. Regner2.2511711113LSep 29 · 01:30M. Vizek1.911011813113K. Schopf1.80127111152WSep 29 · 00:00K. Schopf1.8371111113M. Sychra1.83116691WSep 28 · 23:00V. Dvorak1.679390K. Schopf2.101111113LSep 28 · 21:30M. Sychra1.835111112123K. Schopf1.83115714102LSep 28 · 20:00M. Sychra2.001114113K. Schopf1.7321270WSep 28 · 19:00M. Nohejl2.007670K. Schopf1.731111113WSep 28 · 18:30K. Schopf2.001111113M. Vizek1.738770WSep 28 · 03:30P. Pycha2.4091060K. Schopf1.511112113LSep 28 · 02:00S. Kadavy2.251111113K. Schopf1.578590
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