TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Milan Flesar vs Jan Ruzicka 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811711––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:33 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Jan Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 54 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Jan Ruzicka at 54.2%
54 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 4–7 Jan Ruzicka Milan Flesar has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Flesar beat Ruzicka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Ruzicka
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1528 vs Ruzicka 1642
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 60% vs Ruzicka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 60% vs Ruzicka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar +3 · Ruzicka +2
Flesar
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ruzicka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 2.20 / Ruzicka 1.61
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ruzicka)-3.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13211038
Flesar2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 54 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back22% 18 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 56
Ruzicka1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 95 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it93% 54 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it84% 76 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlesar4wins
AwayRuzicka6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar100%3 of 3
AwayRuzicka85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar3Ruzicka7n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S2Flesar3Ruzicka7n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S3Flesar3Ruzicka7n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S4Flesar4Ruzicka2n = 6Flesar took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlesarRuzickaF − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.035.9−3.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 445 vs 243 / 46152.1%52.7%232 / 445 vs 243 / 461Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaFlesar 2.20/Ruzicka 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.2%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 13:35M. Flesar216870J. Ruzicka331111113
WSep 28 · 10:35M. Flesar47116811113J. Ruzicka4151111682
WSep 23 · 09:03M. Flesar3711114113J. Ruzicka30961141
LSep 23 · 06:05M. Flesar331112100J. Ruzicka391314123
LSep 19 · 10:35M. Flesar187290J. Ruzicka331111113
LSep 19 · 07:05M. Flesar31571181J. Ruzicka3911116113
WSep 6 · 08:05M. Flesar46111011143J. Ruzicka377126121
LAug 13 · 14:35M. Flesar208660J. Ruzicka331111113
WAug 13 · 13:03M. Flesar4281111123J. Ruzicka361187101
LAug 13 · 10:05M. Flesar25711431J. Ruzicka3811511113
M. Flesar10
WSep 28 · 12:35M. Flesar2.751111123D. Hons1.4042100WSep 28 · 11:05T. Trnka1.5012560M. Flesar2.501411113WSep 28 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.3651111682M. Flesar3.00116811113LSep 27 · 21:03M. Flesar1.7310780S. Kafka2.001211113LSep 27 · 20:35D. Hons1.361111113M. Flesar3.009970LSep 27 · 19:35M. Flesar2.639950P. Zivny1.441111113WSep 27 · 18:05S. Kafka1.4454100M. Flesar2.631111123WSep 27 · 09:10M. Flesar2.20111111113R. Vavricka1.61691361LSep 27 · 08:05J. Lovl1.501111113M. Flesar2.509890WSep 27 · 07:35R. Vavricka1.441011981M. Flesar2.6312811113
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 28 · 12:05T. Trnka1.836590J. Ruzicka1.831111113WSep 28 · 11:35D. Hons2.20116671J. Ruzicka1.6141111113LSep 28 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.3651111682M. Flesar3.00116811113WSep 28 · 09:18J. Ruzicka3.001111113O. Polak1.368760LSep 26 · 09:49J. Ruzicka1.83101070J. Lovl1.831212113WSep 26 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.571111113D. Hons2.258560WSep 26 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.911111113J. Lovl1.808430LSep 26 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531111871R. Vavricka2.3891311113WSep 25 · 13:35J. Ruzicka1.611111113M. Holub2.207870LSep 25 · 12:05M. Holub1.80911111113J. Ruzicka1.9111731182
Upcoming Matches
M. Flesar
J. Ruzicka
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