TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Mucha vs Cezary Pawlik 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11610121131311––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
11610121131311––
H2H Grzegorz Mucha 1–2 Cezary Pawlik Grzegorz Mucha has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Mucha beat Pawlik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Pawlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMucha 2.50 / Pawlik 1.45
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Pawlik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13203820
Mucha2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 49 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 54
Pawlik1.45
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 128 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it94% 77 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it81% 100 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMucha1wins
AwayPawlik2wins
3 of 3 to a deciderPawlik leads 2–1, and 3 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mucha1Pawlik2n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
S2Mucha2Pawlik1n = 3Mucha took 2 of 3
S3Mucha1Pawlik2n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
S4Mucha2Pawlik1n = 3Mucha took 2 of 3
S5Mucha1Pawlik2n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMuchaPawlikM − PBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match43.044.0−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuchaPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 327 vs 309 / 52449.5%59%162 / 327 vs 309 / 524Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikMucha 2.50/Pawlik 1.45
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 26 · 18:00G. Mucha495111111113C. Pawlik4311291382
LAug 2 · 02:00G. Mucha4091161132C. Pawlik42114115113
LAug 1 · 16:25G. Mucha4011971122C. Pawlik47511119113
G. Mucha10
LSep 26 · 20:20G. Mucha3.009670J. Oracz1.361111113WSep 26 · 18:45M. Machelski2.3769120G. Mucha1.521111143WSep 26 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.5011291382G. Mucha2.505111111113WSep 26 · 17:10G. Mucha2.3716118113A. Zmijewski1.451451181LSep 26 · 16:00G. Mucha2.751413311102A. Fomin1.4012111113123LSep 25 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.4011411113G. Mucha2.65511681LSep 25 · 03:55G. Mucha2.15451191M. Lewczuk1.6011113113LSep 25 · 02:45M. Baran2.1051111113G. Mucha1.65116571WSep 25 · 01:30A. Staniczek2.7011111231G. Mucha1.4291314113WSep 24 · 23:55Z. Nocun1.776890G. Mucha1.951111113
C. Pawlik10
WSep 26 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.537131111113A. Zmijewski2.35111113842LSep 26 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.857111110112A. Fomin1.80113312133LSep 26 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.5011291382G. Mucha2.505111111113WSep 26 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.201111113M. Machelski3.909350WSep 26 · 15:10C. Pawlik2.00141147113J. Oracz1.71129111182WSep 26 · 02:00M. Wozniczka2.154580C. Pawlik1.601111113WSep 26 · 01:10M. Krutak2.15611291C. Pawlik1.6111911113WSep 26 · 00:25C. Pawlik1.251111113M. Wolny3.628780LSep 25 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.8011711992M. Warzecha1.85611711113WSep 25 · 22:00M. Natkaniec4.206830C. Pawlik1.201111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.