TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krzysztof Schaniel vs Milosz Cesarz 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1197111210511411
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:06 and never touched — 77.6% is still 77.6%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Schaniel to win
77.6%
77.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
1197111210511411
H2H Krzysztof Schaniel 12–4 Milosz Cesarz Milosz Cesarz has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Schaniel beat Cesarz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (60%)
Schaniel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-4 in 16
Schaniel
Wrong
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schaniel 1236 vs Cesarz 1105
Schaniel
Wrong
both rated, 131 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schaniel 20% vs Cesarz 0%
Schaniel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schaniel 20% vs Cesarz 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schaniel -4 · Cesarz -8
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Schaniel) · live re-read · sealed at 78% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cesarz form (0%) is below what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchaniel 1.54 / Cesarz 2.35
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Schaniel)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13194672
Schaniel1.54
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 187 of 324
Up 2–0, closes it89% 92 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it75% 141 of 188
Cesarz2.35
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog24% won 58 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back11% 19 of 167
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchaniel8wins
AwayCesarz2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSchaniel leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchaniel85.7%6 of 7
AwayCesarz33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schaniel7Cesarz3n = 10Schaniel took 7 of 10
S2Schaniel8Cesarz2n = 10Schaniel took 8 of 10
S3Schaniel4Cesarz6n = 10Cesarz took 6 of 10
S4Schaniel4Cesarz4n = 8split evenly
S5Schaniel3Cesarz0n = 3Schaniel took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchanielCesarzS − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.233.5+6.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchanielCesarzBasisWin rate · lifetime858 / 1734 vs 145 / 53149.5%27.3%858 / 1734 vs 145 / 531Avg sets wonper match2.01.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.033.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielSchaniel 1.54/Cesarz 2.35
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.8%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cesarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 07:30K. Schaniel46111176113M. Cesarz4449111192
LAug 25 · 03:30K. Schaniel34117971M. Cesarz4071111113
WAug 24 · 21:30K. Schaniel46111158113M. Cesarz4055111182
WAug 21 · 21:00K. Schaniel52813911113M. Cesarz46111111762
WAug 21 · 16:35K. Schaniel331111113M. Cesarz248970
WMay 8 · 03:10K. Schaniel4011711113M. Cesarz28911171
WOct 29 · 08:10K. Schaniel3911116113M. Cesarz24641131
LOct 23 · 09:30K. Schaniel378111081M. Cesarz4011612113
WOct 13 · 00:20K. Schaniel331111113M. Cesarz248790
WSep 30 · 04:25K. Schaniel4291111113M. Cesarz25114191
K. Schaniel10
LSep 25 · 12:20K. Schaniel1.7361240W. Urban1.981114113LSep 25 · 10:40K. Schaniel1.476811101I. Szymanski2.4511119123LSep 25 · 09:05M. Adamus1.80111147113K. Schaniel1.9097111192LSep 25 · 08:20G. Wichowski1.61101311153K. Schaniel2.1512119131WSep 25 · 07:30K. Schaniel1.49111176113M. Cesarz2.4749111192LSep 25 · 06:20K. Schaniel2.40811100K. Slawinski1.501113123LSep 24 · 13:55K. Schaniel2.506550O. Jadach1.501111113LSep 24 · 12:40K. Schaniel1.8011511642M. Jozefiak1.91911811113LSep 24 · 11:25K. Schaniel2.251161161L. Oracz1.5713114113WSep 24 · 10:10I. Szymanski3.0011111191K. Schaniel1.3613139113
M. Cesarz10
LSep 25 · 11:55G. Wichowski1.011111113M. Cesarz10.807960LSep 25 · 11:05G. Wichowski1.251111113M. Cesarz3.458390LSep 25 · 09:55M. Cesarz1.8555121132I. Szymanski1.851111108113LSep 25 · 08:45K. Slawinski1.2711111411113M. Cesarz3.4213616372LSep 25 · 07:30K. Schaniel1.49111176113M. Cesarz2.4749111192LSep 25 · 05:55M. Adamus1.2312911113M. Cesarz3.801011661LSep 19 · 08:20M. Cesarz2.5010440J. Kaczmarek1.441211113LSep 19 · 06:45J. Pelka1.3014811113M. Cesarz3.251211481WSep 19 · 06:00W. Urban1.30431181M. Cesarz3.1511113113WSep 19 · 05:10M. Cesarz3.70511118113W. Pytlas1.1611981172
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