TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Milan Flesar vs Radek Neterda 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11516141210––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:06 and never touched — 63.9% is still 63.9%
Graded at full timeRadek Neterda to win
63.9%
63.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Radek Neterda below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 68 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Radek Neterda at 63.9%
68 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 3–15 Radek Neterda Milan Flesar has won 3 of their 18 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Neterda beat Flesar 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:06What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Neterda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-15 in 18
Neterda
Wrong
gap of 12 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1493 vs Neterda 1527
Neterda
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 60% vs Neterda 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 50% vs Neterda 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar +2 · Neterda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Neterda) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 3.25 / Neterda 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 73%
Edge (Neterda)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13193505
Flesar3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 48 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back23% 18 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 53
Neterda1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 62 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it75% 44 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlesar2wins
AwayNeterda8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNeterda leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar40%2 of 5
AwayNeterda100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar5Neterda5n = 10split evenly
S2Flesar1Neterda9n = 10Neterda took 9 of 10
S3Flesar3Neterda7n = 10Neterda took 7 of 10
S4Flesar1Neterda5n = 6Neterda took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlesarNeterdaF − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match27.037.3−10.3per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarNeterdaBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 432 vs 224 / 44352.1%50.6%225 / 432 vs 224 / 443Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaFlesar 3.25/Neterda 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.5%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 06:35M. Flesar21114421R. Neterda4071111113
LSep 23 · 08:35M. Flesar170980R. Neterda331111113
LSep 19 · 13:10M. Flesar27731161R. Neterda3911116113
LSep 19 · 11:05M. Flesar105410R. Neterda331111113
WSep 8 · 20:05M. Flesar3711411113R. Neterda32811761
LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar187650R. Neterda331111113
WSep 4 · 14:05M. Flesar51111199113R. Neterda4238111192
LJul 1 · 12:05M. Flesar4111511682R. Neterda48611911113
LJun 29 · 15:05M. Flesar32114891R. Neterda4071111113
LJun 11 · 13:15M. Flesar164480R. Neterda331111113
M. Flesar10
WSep 25 · 08:35M. Flesar1.911111113M. Rojka1.809630WSep 25 · 07:05P. Chvatal1.576370M. Flesar2.251111113LSep 25 · 06:35R. Neterda1.3371111113M. Flesar3.25114421WSep 24 · 09:35P. Chvatal1.539690M. Flesar2.381111113LSep 24 · 08:35M. Flesar2.388111171O. Pros1.5311513113WSep 24 · 07:05T. Trnka1.503290M. Flesar2.501111113LSep 24 · 06:35P. Chvatal1.6711611113M. Flesar2.10711681WSep 23 · 09:03J. Ruzicka1.25961141M. Flesar3.7511114113LSep 23 · 08:35R. Neterda1.331111113M. Flesar3.250980LSep 23 · 07:35M. Flesar3.251071291J. Lovl1.33121110113
R. Neterda10
LSep 25 · 08:05P. Chvatal1.5711118113R. Neterda2.25571131WSep 25 · 07:35M. Rojka1.91211721R. Neterda1.8011911113WSep 25 · 06:35R. Neterda1.3371111113M. Flesar3.25114421LSep 24 · 17:35R. Neterda1.83111291192J. Martin1.83614116113WSep 24 · 16:05P. Chvatal1.6183111372R. Neterda2.201111611113WSep 24 · 15:35J. Martin2.1012116742R. Neterda1.671041111113LSep 24 · 14:35R. Neterda1.67811101182J. Jr2.10119127113LSep 23 · 09:33J. Lovl1.73611411113R. Neterda2.0011911742WSep 23 · 08:35R. Neterda1.331111113M. Flesar3.250980LSep 23 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.73981116113R. Neterda2.00111161452
Upcoming Matches
M. Flesar
Nothing scheduled
R. Neterda
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