TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Daniel Zelezny vs Jaroslav Dohnal 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
101211511131191214
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Zelezny above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 108 set 5, 12-14 · our read held Daniel Zelezny at 54.0%
108 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Zelezny 14–24 Jaroslav Dohnal Daniel Zelezny has won 14 of their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 20:4454.0%Our read50.0%to break even at 2.00
clears by 4.0pp50.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.00 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dohnal
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-24 in 38
Dohnal
Correct
gap of 10 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezny 1616 vs Dohnal 1504
Zelezny
Wrong
both rated, 113 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezny 60% vs Dohnal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezny 60% vs Dohnal 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezny +2 · Dohnal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Zelezny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezny 2.00 / Dohnal 1.727
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zelezny)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13247907
Zelezny2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog55% won 11 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back43% 6 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back50% 3 of 6
Dohnal1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 120 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it91% 62 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it69% 88 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezny5wins
AwayDohnal5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezny80%4 of 5
AwayDohnal80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezny5Dohnal5n = 10split evenly
S2Zelezny3Dohnal7n = 10Dohnal took 7 of 10
S3Zelezny5Dohnal5n = 10split evenly
S4Zelezny4Dohnal4n = 8split evenly
S5Zelezny4Dohnal2n = 6Zelezny took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZeleznyDohnalZ − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.943.9−2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZeleznyDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 235 vs 387 / 66254.5%58.5%128 / 235 vs 387 / 662Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.440.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyZelezny 2.00/Dohnal 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 20:25D. Zelezny485101111113J. Dohnal4711127892
LSep 12 · 19:25D. Zelezny38129891J. Dohnal43101111113
LJun 27 · 16:55D. Zelezny3721171252J. Dohnal471141110113
WMay 30 · 15:55D. Zelezny521271111113J. Dohnal50101113972
LApr 13 · 20:20D. Zelezny321011651J. Dohnal4312911113
WMar 28 · 11:55D. Zelezny361114113J. Dohnal2561270
LMar 22 · 12:20D. Zelezny2311570J. Dohnal351311113
WMar 8 · 13:55D. Zelezny531111119113J. Dohnal4681361182
WFeb 14 · 13:25D. Zelezny511210126113J. Dohnal521012101192
LJan 25 · 11:40D. Zelezny49109111182J. Dohnal51121198113
D. Zelezny10
WOct 5 · 22:05J. Dohnal1.8099100D. Zelezny1.901111123WOct 5 · 19:20T. Rein2.754620D. Zelezny1.401111113WOct 5 · 18:50J. Cousin2.6311115101D. Zelezny1.4413711123LOct 3 · 18:35D. Zelezny1.3271171172J. Cousin3.00115114113LOct 3 · 17:25D. Zelezny1.2515117982A. Brandtl Jr3.751381111113WOct 3 · 15:55J. Cousin3.0084100D. Zelezny1.361111123WOct 3 · 15:25V. Koutnik1.8011981182D. Zelezny1.91711118113LOct 3 · 14:31D. Zelezny1.9241111452J. Sebl1.78117911113LOct 3 · 13:25D. Zelezny2.00711751V. Koutnik1.7311811113WOct 3 · 11:55J. Sebl1.83118411122D. Zelezny1.83911118143
J. Dohnal10
LOct 5 · 22:05J. Dohnal1.8099100D. Zelezny1.901111123LOct 5 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.57611981J. Cousin2.2511711113WOct 5 · 18:20T. Rein2.506490J. Dohnal1.501111113WOct 4 · 13:50J. Sebl2.0711941182J. Dohnal1.67911115113WOct 4 · 12:20T. Rein2.5091161172J. Dohnal1.50116118113LOct 4 · 11:50J. Sebl2.5081111133J. Dohnal1.501148111WOct 4 · 10:50J. Dohnal1.573111118113J. Cousin2.25111391692WOct 2 · 21:53T. Rein2.3551111892J. Dohnal1.52117811113LOct 2 · 20:55T. Rein2.75911118133J. Dohnal1.40119811112LOct 2 · 20:25D. Zelezny2.005101111113J. Dohnal1.7311127892
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