TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Prylepa vs Oleksandr Ziakun 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117117611119––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:53 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeDmytro Prylepa to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Prylepa above · Oleksandr Ziakun below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Dmytro Prylepa at 54.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Prylepa 15–11 Oleksandr Ziakun Oleksandr Ziakun has won 11 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5354.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Prylepa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-11 in 26
Prylepa
Correct
gap of 4 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prylepa 1515 vs Ziakun 1514
Prylepa
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prylepa 60% vs Ziakun 40%
Prylepa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prylepa 60% vs Ziakun 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Prylepa +1 · Ziakun +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Prylepa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrylepa 1.727 / Ziakun 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Prylepa)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229231
Prylepa1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 126 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it97% 60 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it86% 102 of 119
Ziakun2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 91 of 263
Down 0–1, comes back19% 29 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrylepa5wins
AwayZiakun5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrylepa71.4%5 of 7
AwayZiakun100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prylepa7Ziakun3n = 10Prylepa took 7 of 10
S2Prylepa7Ziakun3n = 10Prylepa took 7 of 10
S3Prylepa1Ziakun9n = 10Ziakun took 9 of 10
S4Prylepa4Ziakun6n = 10Ziakun took 6 of 10
S5Prylepa2Ziakun1n = 3Prylepa took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrylepaZiakunP − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.943.1−1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrylepaZiakunBasisWin rate · lifetime400 / 807 vs 359 / 76149.6%47.2%400 / 807 vs 359 / 761Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PrylepaPrylepa 1.73/Ziakun 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Prylepa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Prylepa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 07:00D. Prylepa3911116113O. Ziakun34771191
LOct 1 · 10:30D. Prylepa366121171O. Ziakun4511149113
WSep 23 · 10:30D. Prylepa49111179113O. Ziakun4799111172
WAug 31 · 10:30D. Prylepa4111118113O. Ziakun31471191
LAug 28 · 10:30D. Prylepa341194101O. Ziakun4281111123
LAug 23 · 07:00D. Prylepa31611861O. Ziakun4211911113
WAug 13 · 09:00D. Prylepa4211119113O. Ziakun34791171
LAug 3 · 10:00D. Prylepa4511177101O. Ziakun4861911123
WJul 18 · 13:30D. Prylepa541112713113O. Ziakun50510111592
LJun 29 · 04:30D. Prylepa48111361442O. Ziakun5813111112113
D. Prylepa10
WOct 2 · 05:00D. Prylepa1.57611112113D. Kuzmenko2.2511681152LOct 1 · 10:30O. Ziakun2.0011149113D. Prylepa1.736121171WOct 1 · 09:30D. Prylepa1.611111113D. Kuzmenko2.209940WOct 1 · 08:30D. Prylepa1.40121111113S. Miroshnychenko2.751013861LOct 1 · 07:00D. Prylepa2.63711361O. Syksa1.4411811113WOct 1 · 05:00D. Prylepa2.38961114113M. Hubenko1.53111111282LSep 28 · 10:30O. Syksa1.401111913113D. Prylepa2.7576111562LSep 28 · 09:30D. Prylepa1.3341181592O. Lyman3.251141113113WSep 28 · 08:30D. Prylepa1.571111105123D. Kuzmenko2.25861211102WSep 28 · 07:00D. Prylepa1.67101113113O. Kurylenko2.101261191
O. Ziakun10
WOct 2 · 08:00O. Ziakun2.00511411113D. Kuzmenko1.7311911782WOct 2 · 05:30O. Ziakun1.4411911113S. Miroshnychenko2.63711891WOct 1 · 10:30O. Ziakun2.0011149113D. Prylepa1.736121171LOct 1 · 09:00O. Ziakun2.6311910101O. Syksa1.4431112123LOct 1 · 07:30O. Ziakun2.003890D. Kuzmenko1.731111113LOct 1 · 06:00O. Ziakun3.006890M. Hubenko1.361111113WOct 1 · 04:30O. Ziakun1.441317913113S. Miroshnychenko2.631515111152WSep 29 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.8312611113S. Maliuk1.831011871WSep 29 · 09:00O. Ziakun1.4071311113S. Miroshnychenko2.751111691LSep 29 · 07:30O. Ziakun3.0098111182M. Hubenko1.36111185113
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