TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Mezera vs Lukas Rulc 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
12141517511––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:14 and never touched: 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Rulc to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Mezera above · Lukas Rulc below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 15-17
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 74 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Lukas Rulc at 66.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Mezera 4–7 Lukas Rulc Ondrej Mezera has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1466.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 4.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Rulc
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Rulc
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mezera 1611 vs Rulc 1647
Rulc
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mezera 40% vs Rulc 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mezera 50% vs Rulc 30%
Mezera
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mezera -1 · Rulc +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Rulc) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rulc form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezera 2.75 / Rulc 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Rulc)-4.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223739
Mezera2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 117 of 257
Down 0–1, comes back32% 49 of 153
Down 0–2, comes back19% 14 of 73
Rulc1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 91 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it87% 39 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it67% 63 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMezera4wins
AwayRulc6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRulc leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMezera33.3%1 of 3
AwayRulc57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezera3Rulc7n = 10Rulc took 7 of 10
S2Mezera2Rulc8n = 10Rulc took 8 of 10
S3Mezera3Rulc7n = 10Rulc took 7 of 10
S4Mezera4Rulc3n = 7Mezera took 4 of 7
S5Mezera3Rulc0n = 3Mezera took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMezeraRulcM − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.541.2−6.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezeraRulcBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 802 vs 344 / 68849%50%393 / 802 vs 344 / 688Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.839.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RulcMezera 2.75/Rulc 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.7%
Rulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 15:15O. Mezera51611811153L. Rulc51118118132
LSep 16 · 18:45O. Mezera226790L. Rulc331111113
WAug 22 · 12:53O. Mezera4311511163L. Rulc428119141
LAug 22 · 09:45O. Mezera165380L. Rulc331111113
LJul 26 · 14:15O. Mezera30751171L. Rulc4211119113
WJul 10 · 07:15O. Mezera491011512113L. Rulc47128111062
LJul 5 · 19:45O. Mezera33116971L. Rulc4291111113
LJan 9 · 13:39O. Mezera2031070L. Rulc341112113
WJan 9 · 10:15O. Mezera518101111113L. Rulc4711128972
LDec 12 · 09:00O. Mezera30114781L. Rulc4181111113
O. Mezera10
WOct 1 · 15:15O. Mezera4.00411148113J. Krames Sr1.22118121192LOct 1 · 13:15O. Mezera2.2047111192M. Vyskocil1.61111158113WSep 29 · 16:49O. Mezera2.381215113L. Heinzl1.53101390WSep 29 · 15:45L. Heinzl1.25912991O. Mezera3.75111011113LSep 29 · 14:45J. Krames Sr1.2811611113O. Mezera3.50711391LSep 29 · 13:15M. Kocvara1.5712616113O. Mezera2.2510111471LSep 27 · 17:00O. Mezera1.85811791M. Kovarik1.8511911113WSep 27 · 16:00O. Mezera3.251313113S. Rejent1.33111190WSep 27 · 14:30L. Svoboda1.4012551192O. Mezera2.751011116113WSep 27 · 14:00M. Kovarik1.611177101O. Mezera2.2071111102
L. Rulc10
LOct 1 · 15:45L. Rulc1.57811871M. Vyskocil2.2511911113WOct 1 · 13:45J. Krames Sr1.6111711982L. Rulc2.20611711113LSep 30 · 16:44L. Rulc1.80831141S. Rejent1.9111118113WSep 30 · 15:45S. Rejent2.206111111102L. Rulc1.61119135123LSep 30 · 14:45L. Heinzl1.611211123L. Rulc2.20107100LSep 30 · 13:15M. Myler2.2011813113L. Rulc1.619111191LSep 29 · 12:38L. Dobias1.731411143L. Rulc2.00129120LSep 29 · 11:30L. Rulc1.91101490M. Makara1.801216113WSep 29 · 10:30L. Rulc2.10118115113L. Dobias1.6781171162LSep 29 · 09:30L. Rulc1.6111611792T. Liska2.20711411113
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