TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasyl Matviichuk vs Volodymyr Khyzhnyak 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611511116511––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:54 and never touched: 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeVasyl Matviichuk to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasyl Matviichuk above · Volodymyr Khyzhnyak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 66 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Vasyl Matviichuk at 61.6%
66 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Matviichuk 17–14 Volodymyr Khyzhnyak Volodymyr Khyzhnyak has won 14 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5461.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Matviichuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-14 in 31
Matviichuk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matviichuk 1119 vs Khyzhnyak 1117
Matviichuk
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matviichuk 0% vs Khyzhnyak 60%
Khyzhnyak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matviichuk 30% vs Khyzhnyak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matviichuk -5 · Khyzhnyak -1
Matviichuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Matviichuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khyzhnyak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatviichuk 1.533 / Khyzhnyak 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Matviichuk)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223665
Matviichuk1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 85 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it84% 69 of 82
Khyzhnyak2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 24 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back8% 4 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatviichuk7wins
AwayKhyzhnyak3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMatviichuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatviichuk83.3%5 of 6
AwayKhyzhnyak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matviichuk6Khyzhnyak4n = 10Matviichuk took 6 of 10
S2Matviichuk4Khyzhnyak6n = 10Khyzhnyak took 6 of 10
S3Matviichuk6Khyzhnyak4n = 10Matviichuk took 6 of 10
S4Matviichuk5Khyzhnyak3n = 8Matviichuk took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatviichukKhyzhnyakM − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.634.5+4.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatviichukKhyzhnyakBasisWin rate · lifetime288 / 603 vs 62 / 17747.8%35%288 / 603 vs 62 / 177Avg sets wonper match1.91.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.934.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MatviichukMatviichuk 1.53/Khyzhnyak 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Matviichuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Khyzhnyak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 07:00V. Matviichuk27651151V. Khyzhnyak3911116113
LSep 28 · 05:00V. Matviichuk321161051V. Khyzhnyak4281112113
WSep 25 · 09:00V. Matviichuk521191110113V. Khyzhnyak4471171272
WSep 22 · 09:00V. Matviichuk45111310113V. Khyzhnyak358111241
LSep 10 · 08:00V. Matviichuk2045110V. Khyzhnyak351111133
WAug 14 · 08:00V. Matviichuk4312911113V. Khyzhnyak331011841
WAug 2 · 11:59V. Matviichuk45111011133V. Khyzhnyak357125111
WJul 21 · 06:00V. Matviichuk4071111113V. Khyzhnyak29114591
WJun 9 · 07:00V. Matviichuk331111113V. Khyzhnyak144910
WMay 22 · 08:00V. Matviichuk49811811113V. Khyzhnyak3911711552
V. Matviichuk10
LOct 1 · 06:00V. Matviichuk2.6316650M. Zavoloka1.441811113LSep 29 · 09:00A. Lysyi2.101111113V. Matviichuk1.678370LSep 29 · 07:30E. Bakin1.281111108113V. Matviichuk3.5089121192LSep 29 · 06:00V. Simchuk1.28111012113V. Matviichuk3.504121051LSep 29 · 05:00S. Honcharenko1.6111911113V. Matviichuk2.20211861WSep 28 · 10:03V. Matviichuk1.8011511113A. Lysyi1.91611771WSep 28 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi2.63591141V. Matviichuk1.4411114113LSep 28 · 07:30A. Lysyi2.10114711133V. Matviichuk1.67411112112WSep 28 · 06:00S. Honcharenko1.535230V. Matviichuk2.381111113LSep 28 · 05:00V. Khyzhnyak2.7581112113V. Matviichuk1.401161051
V. Khyzhnyak10
LOct 1 · 05:30S. Honcharenko1.20111110113V. Khyzhnyak4.33851261WSep 28 · 10:33V. Khyzhnyak4.70115116133S. Honcharenko1.15811511112LSep 28 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.171111113V. Khyzhnyak4.507490WSep 28 · 08:00V. Khyzhnyak1.611111113V. Hyriavyi2.206750WSep 28 · 06:30V. Khyzhnyak5.0011912113A. Lysyi1.149111091WSep 28 · 05:00V. Khyzhnyak2.7581112113V. Matviichuk1.401161051LSep 25 · 09:00V. Khyzhnyak2.6371171272V. Matviichuk1.441191110113LSep 25 · 08:00S. Honcharenko1.1411114123V. Khyzhnyak5.009611101LSep 25 · 07:00V. Saakian1.171112113V. Khyzhnyak4.5041040LSep 25 · 05:30V. Hyriavyi2.20118118113V. Khyzhnyak1.6171161192
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