TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Slosarczyk vs Mariusz Baron 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111210119311118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:14 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Baron to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Slosarczyk above · Mariusz Baron below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 92 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Mariusz Baron at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Slosarczyk 6–19 Mariusz Baron Pawel Slosarczyk has won 6 of their 25 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Baron beat Slosarczyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1454.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Slosarczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-19 in 25
Baron
Wrong
gap of 13 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slosarczyk 1240 vs Baron 1351
Baron
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slosarczyk 20% vs Baron 100%
Baron
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slosarczyk 30% vs Baron 50%
Baron
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Slosarczyk -3 · Baron +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Baron) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlosarczyk 1.80 / Baron 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baron)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13222159
Slosarczyk1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 86 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it80% 60 of 75
Baron1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 192 of 480
Down 0–1, comes back25% 67 of 265
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlosarczyk4wins
AwayBaron6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBaron leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlosarczyk75%3 of 4
AwayBaron83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slosarczyk4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S2Slosarczyk4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S3Slosarczyk5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S4Slosarczyk3Baron6n = 9Baron took 6 of 9
S5Slosarczyk3Baron2n = 5Slosarczyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlosarczykBaronS − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.544.8−3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlosarczykBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime355 / 941 vs 874 / 183237.7%47.7%355 / 941 vs 874 / 1832Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.339.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BaronSlosarczyk 1.80/Baron 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Baron · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Slosarczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 23:50P. Slosarczyk541181110143M. Baron49811612122
LSep 21 · 17:55P. Slosarczyk36571591M. Baron46111113113
LSep 11 · 11:25P. Slosarczyk391181371M. Baron4581115113
WSep 11 · 05:15P. Slosarczyk50111189113M. Baron4169111142
LSep 9 · 22:25P. Slosarczyk40311101152M. Baron51118129113
WAug 10 · 03:05P. Slosarczyk4211911113M. Baron33611791
LAug 9 · 21:05P. Slosarczyk4561117652M. Baron571191511113
LJul 30 · 23:10P. Slosarczyk36812881M. Baron43111011113
WJul 30 · 17:10P. Slosarczyk51791212113M. Baron501111101082
LJul 20 · 01:55P. Slosarczyk226880M. Baron331111113
P. Slosarczyk10
WOct 1 · 13:05O. Vincenec1.57912651P. Slosarczyk2.25111011113LOct 1 · 10:35P. Slosarczyk3.75159101322W. Urban1.2513111211113LOct 1 · 09:50P. Gumulinski1.28111113113P. Slosarczyk3.501371181LOct 1 · 08:35P. Slosarczyk2.0011119182M. Baron1.73891111113WOct 1 · 06:55P. Slosarczyk2.201111113O. Vincenec1.617980LOct 1 · 05:40P. Slosarczyk3.50631161P. Gumulinski1.2811118113LOct 1 · 04:10P. Slosarczyk2.1081161172R. Idaczyk1.67116118113LOct 1 · 03:00P. Slosarczyk3.252640W. Urban1.331111113WSep 30 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.445111181P. Slosarczyk2.6311138113WSep 30 · 01:00J. Nowak1.8311119592P. Slosarczyk1.83961111113
M. Baron10
WOct 1 · 13:30M. Baron2.2011911113W. Urban1.61911661WOct 1 · 11:00P. Gumulinski1.801016121192M. Baron1.911218108113WOct 1 · 09:25R. Idaczyk2.008680M. Baron1.731111113WOct 1 · 08:35P. Slosarczyk2.0011119182M. Baron1.73891111113WOct 1 · 07:20M. Baron1.831112710113W. Urban1.83910111252WOct 1 · 06:05O. Vincenec1.677580M. Baron2.101111113LOct 1 · 04:55P. Gumulinski1.80711128113M. Baron1.91119101182LOct 1 · 03:25R. Idaczyk1.9111811123M. Baron1.808116101LSep 29 · 16:40P. Polok1.421111113M. Baron2.609680LSep 29 · 15:55W. Ptak1.731111113M. Baron1.989740
Upcoming Matches
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M. Baron
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