TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Radek Sedlacek vs Radek Benes 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
4111171210116––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:38 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Sedlacek above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 72 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Radek Benes at 54.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Radek Sedlacek 17–21 Radek Benes Radek Sedlacek has won 17 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:3854.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-21 in 38
Benes
Wrong
gap of 4 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sedlacek 1597 vs Benes 1623
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sedlacek 60% vs Benes 100%
Benes
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sedlacek 70% vs Benes 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sedlacek -1 · Benes +5
Benes
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSedlacek 2.00 / Benes 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Benes)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13219281
Sedlacek2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 36 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back27% 12 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Benes1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 180 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it78% 121 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSedlacek4wins
AwayBenes6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSedlacek66.7%4 of 6
AwayBenes100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sedlacek6Benes4n = 10Sedlacek took 6 of 10
S2Sedlacek5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S3Sedlacek5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S4Sedlacek1Benes6n = 7Benes took 6 of 7
S5Sedlacek2Benes2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSedlacekBenesS − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.440.40.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSedlacekBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime158 / 336 vs 519 / 99647%52.1%158 / 336 vs 519 / 996Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenesSedlacek 2.00/Benes 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sedlacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 12:15R. Sedlacek228680R. Benes331111113
WSep 19 · 08:45R. Sedlacek581511129113R. Benes55138141192
WSep 19 · 08:15R. Sedlacek371112143R. Benes27510120
LSep 9 · 10:10R. Sedlacek4411511892R. Benes43411611113
LSep 9 · 07:40R. Sedlacek361011691R. Benes4312911113
LSep 2 · 10:45R. Sedlacek35871191R. Benes3911116113
LAug 10 · 10:10R. Sedlacek361110691R. Benes3841211113
WJul 27 · 08:10R. Sedlacek351111133R. Benes2595110
LJun 24 · 13:15R. Sedlacek47611713102R. Benes511161111123
WJun 24 · 10:10R. Sedlacek541410118113R. Benes50121261192
R. Sedlacek10
LSep 30 · 06:40R. Sedlacek1.61117111162T. Kindl2.20411139113WSep 30 · 05:40R. Sedlacek1.8312911113D. Pawlik1.831011871WSep 28 · 09:15M. Raska2.75811821R. Sedlacek1.4011811113WSep 28 · 07:40T. Krenek1.73811121152R. Sedlacek2.00116147113LSep 28 · 07:10M. Raska2.751110115113R. Sedlacek1.4091291182WSep 28 · 06:10R. Sedlacek1.53111114113D. Vitasek2.381361231LSep 24 · 13:10R. Sedlacek1.67951251L. Dzida2.10111110113WSep 24 · 12:10R. Sedlacek1.8011512113L. Dzida1.914111021WSep 24 · 10:40T. Krenek1.73651181R. Sedlacek2.0011119113WSep 24 · 10:10D. Pawlik1.61116191R. Sedlacek2.2051111113
R. Benes10
WSep 30 · 07:10D. Pawlik2.2012101171R. Benes1.6114126113WSep 30 · 06:10R. Benes1.80101111123T. Kindl1.911296101WSep 29 · 09:18R. Benes1.6711611113I. Heuman2.10211891WSep 29 · 08:10R. Benes1.67181110143D. Pawlik2.1016712121WSep 29 · 06:40J. Travnicek2.25113681R. Benes1.5781111113LSep 29 · 06:10I. Heuman2.20115711113R. Benes1.6141111592WSep 28 · 17:10A. Kanak2.0061260R. Benes1.731114113LSep 28 · 15:40K. Kleprlik1.91311115113R. Benes1.8011781172WSep 28 · 15:10D. Pawlik1.911171071R. Benes1.8071112113WSep 28 · 14:10R. Benes1.737111111113A. Kanak2.0011171362
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