TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Zochniak vs Michal Olbrycht 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12149111171210211
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Olbrycht to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Zochniak above · Michal Olbrycht below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 99 set 5, 2-11 — our read held Michal Olbrycht at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Zochniak 11–23 Michal Olbrycht Jakub Zochniak has won 11 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:31What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Olbrycht
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-23 in 34
Olbrycht
Correct
gap of 12 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zochniak 1563 vs Olbrycht 1671
Olbrycht
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zochniak 40% vs Olbrycht 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zochniak 50% vs Olbrycht 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zochniak -3 · Olbrycht -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Olbrycht) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olbrycht form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZochniak 2.38 / Olbrycht 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Olbrycht)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13201003
Zochniak2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 136 of 400
Down 0–1, comes back14% 31 of 228
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 119
Olbrycht1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 88 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it82% 65 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZochniak4wins
AwayOlbrycht6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOlbrycht leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZochniak50%3 of 6
AwayOlbrycht75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zochniak6Olbrycht4n = 10Zochniak took 6 of 10
S2Zochniak4Olbrycht6n = 10Olbrycht took 6 of 10
S3Zochniak3Olbrycht7n = 10Olbrycht took 7 of 10
S4Zochniak4Olbrycht5n = 9Olbrycht took 5 of 9
S5Zochniak2Olbrycht2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZochniakOlbrychtZ − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.842.5−0.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZochniakOlbrychtBasisWin rate · lifetime1148 / 2190 vs 378 / 79852.4%47.4%1148 / 2190 vs 378 / 798Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlbrychtZochniak 2.38/Olbrycht 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Olbrycht · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Olbrycht won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 27 · 23:20J. Zochniak4111811742M. Olbrycht48811711113
LJul 23 · 12:35J. Zochniak361191061M. Olbrycht4061112113
WJul 7 · 23:55J. Zochniak491111115113M. Olbrycht4361371162
LJul 7 · 21:45J. Zochniak3911710111M. Olbrycht4371112133
WJun 30 · 16:55J. Zochniak4311129113M. Olbrycht399101191
LMay 7 · 23:50J. Zochniak2981470M. Olbrycht381116113
LMay 7 · 21:30J. Zochniak53101491192M. Olbrycht541212118113
WApr 27 · 23:25J. Zochniak501110711113M. Olbrycht4061211742
LApr 27 · 21:05J. Zochniak341011761M. Olbrycht4312911113
WApr 13 · 23:50J. Zochniak4491113113M. Olbrycht371181171
J. Zochniak10
LSep 27 · 18:30J. Zochniak2.50811951M. Kolek1.5011411113LSep 27 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.40118912113J. Zochniak2.75311111092LSep 27 · 15:25J. Zochniak3.005101361J. Kuzmicz1.36111211113LSep 26 · 07:40J. Zochniak2.206650D. Kosmal1.601111113WSep 26 · 06:25J. Zochniak1.32811114123J. Wozniak2.95118911102WSep 26 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.371112113T. Piotrowski2.8061090LSep 26 · 04:00I. Dabrowski2.2511611113J. Zochniak1.58811931WSep 26 · 03:20J. Zochniak1.651111113B. Mleczko2.107550LSep 25 · 13:55M. Minda2.201111113J. Zochniak1.578780WSep 25 · 13:05M. Zagajewski3.4578140J. Zochniak1.251111163
M. Olbrycht10
LSep 27 · 19:15J. Kuzmicz1.301111113M. Olbrycht3.407930LSep 27 · 16:30L. Pietraszko2.2511126113M. Olbrycht1.575101131LSep 27 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.6111117113M. Olbrycht2.20481141LSep 27 · 00:10M. Olbrycht1.6141090M. Kolek2.201112113WSep 26 · 23:20M. Olbrycht1.831111113D. Kostal1.838870WSep 26 · 21:50M. Olbrycht3.501111113J. Kuzmicz1.288960WSep 26 · 21:25M. Olbrycht2.009111011113F. Mlynarski1.7311612992WSep 26 · 20:30D. Kostal1.831411891M. Olbrycht1.8316811113WSep 26 · 19:15M. Olbrycht1.5313911113M. Kolek2.381111671LSep 26 · 18:05A. Wos2.63611511113M. Olbrycht1.4411911492
Upcoming Matches
J. Zochniak
Sep 27 · 19:40J. Zochniak2.00L. Pietraszko1.73—Sep 28 · 03:00J. Zochniak—M. Kukawka——Sep 28 · 04:10J. Zochniak—M. Trela——Sep 28 · 05:40J. Zochniak—R. Stapor——Sep 28 · 06:55J. Zochniak—A. Sobel——Sep 28 · 08:35J. Zochniak—B. Warpas——Sep 28 · 09:25J. Zochniak—D. Solilo——Sep 28 · 10:10J. Zochniak—A. Sobel——Sep 28 · 11:25J. Zochniak—M. Minda——Sep 28 · 12:40J. Zochniak—B. Czerwinski——
M. Olbrycht
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