TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Maciej Kolek vs Daniel Kostal 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611118911115811
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:10 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Daniel Kostal below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 91 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 66.1%
91 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 1–0 Daniel Kostal Daniel Kostal has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kolek beat Kostal 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Kolek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1669 vs Kostal 1580
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 60% vs Kostal 20%
Kolek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 60% vs Kostal 20%
Kolek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -2 · Kostal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostal form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.60 / Kostal 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kolek)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13200809
Kolek1.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 255 of 418
Up 2–0, closes it94% 87 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it81% 190 of 235
Kostal2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 17 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back26% 9 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKolek1wins
AwayKostal0wins
Kolek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKolekKostalKolek − KostalBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match41.035.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekKostalBasisWin rate · lifetime729 / 1449 vs 29 / 7550.3%38.7%729 / 1449 vs 29 / 75Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.035.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.60/Kostal 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.6%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kostal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 26 · 15:00M. Kolek4111811113D. Kostal35711981
M. Kolek10
LSep 26 · 22:55M. Kolek2.2511580F. Mlynarski1.571311113LSep 26 · 20:05F. Mlynarski1.5011118113M. Kolek2.50671191LSep 26 · 19:15M. Olbrycht1.5313911113M. Kolek2.381111671WSep 26 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.369101181M. Kolek3.0011126113WSep 26 · 16:30A. Wos1.83132111192M. Kolek1.83151184113WSep 26 · 15:00D. Kostal1.83711981M. Kolek1.8311811113LSep 22 · 00:10J. Mitas1.7311711133M. Kolek2.007118111WSep 21 · 23:45M. Kolek2.0011811113K. Staszczyk1.73411771WSep 21 · 22:55M. Kolek1.8311116113J. Chmielowski1.83991181LSep 21 · 21:00M. Kolek1.409111211102K. Kostyk2.75116145123
D. Kostal10
WSep 26 · 22:35J. Kuzmicz1.306890D. Kostal3.401111113WSep 26 · 22:10D. Kostal2.3811124113F. Mlynarski1.539101151LSep 26 · 20:30D. Kostal1.831411891M. Olbrycht1.8316811113WSep 26 · 18:50D. Kostal1.731112113A. Wos2.0051070LSep 26 · 17:40D. Kostal2.38109111142F. Mlynarski1.53121136113LSep 26 · 16:05D. Kostal3.001110101242J. Kuzmicz1.366121210113LSep 26 · 15:00D. Kostal1.83711981M. Kolek1.8311811113WSep 19 · 14:35D. Kostal2.6311811133G. Poliniewicz1.448119111LSep 19 · 12:55D. Kostal3.5011751462M. Jadczyk1.289111112113LSep 19 · 11:40D. Kostal4.005570D. Wederlich1.221111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Kolek
Sep 26 · 23:45M. Kolek3.00J. Kuzmicz1.36—Sep 27 · 00:10M. Kolek2.20M. Olbrycht1.61—Sep 27 · 15:45M. Kolek—L. Pietraszko——Sep 27 · 16:55M. Kolek—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 27 · 17:40M. Kolek—F. Mlynarski——Sep 27 · 18:30M. Kolek—J. Zochniak——Sep 27 · 20:05M. Kolek—M. Olbrycht——Sep 27 · 21:50M. Kolek—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 27 · 22:35M. Kolek—F. Mlynarski——Sep 27 · 23:45M. Kolek—M. Olbrycht——
D. Kostal
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