TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Nazar Kovalchuk vs Orest Hura 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111715911116114
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:56 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Orest Hura below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 17-15
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 103 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 58.9%
103 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 16–13 Orest Hura Orest Hura has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:56What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-13 in 29
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1650 vs Hura 1594
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Hura 80%
Hura
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Hura 60%
Hura
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -3 · Hura +1
Kovalchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hura form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.61 / Hura 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13196584
Kovalchuk1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 165 of 285
Up 2–0, closes it93% 63 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it73% 109 of 149
Hura2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 39 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back24% 13 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk8wins
AwayHura2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk100%7 of 7
AwayHura66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk7Hura3n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Hura5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk8Hura2n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S4Kovalchuk3Hura4n = 7Hura took 4 of 7
S5Kovalchuk3Hura0n = 3Kovalchuk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukHuraK − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.836.0+4.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukHuraBasisWin rate · lifetime395 / 762 vs 411 / 78651.8%52.3%395 / 762 vs 411 / 786Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.61/Hura 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 10:08N. Kovalchuk38817761O. Hura48111511113
WSep 21 · 05:55N. Kovalchuk331111113O. Hura227870
WSep 16 · 23:45N. Kovalchuk51711913113O. Hura45114111182
WSep 8 · 09:55N. Kovalchuk521115114113O. Hura4851771182
WAug 25 · 23:15N. Kovalchuk331111113O. Hura238960
LAug 6 · 20:15N. Kovalchuk315101151O. Hura4311129113
WAug 1 · 15:35N. Kovalchuk50127119113O. Hura47101171182
WJul 31 · 22:30N. Kovalchuk47121211123O. Hura3710143101
WJul 26 · 08:05N. Kovalchuk331111113O. Hura217950
WJul 25 · 13:05N. Kovalchuk4011711113O. Hura26611541
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 26 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.801211910113A. Shypilov1.91106111282LSep 26 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.6111116882R. Lazebnyi2.20951111113LSep 24 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk1.6111128992S. Berezynskyi2.209101111113LSep 24 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.25611911113N. Kovalchuk1.5711511692WSep 23 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.004813101N. Kovalchuk1.73111111123LSep 23 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk1.53115571O. Napirko2.3881111113WSep 23 · 21:15M. Smyrnov2.251191191N. Kovalchuk1.5771113113LSep 21 · 10:08O. Hura2.25111511113N. Kovalchuk1.57817761WSep 21 · 08:55V. Vlasenko2.2511911282N. Kovalchuk1.57911711113LSep 21 · 07:25N. Kovalchuk1.61411881A. Shypilov2.2011711113
O. Hura10
LSep 26 · 15:35V. Boyko2.251111113O. Hura1.579470WSep 26 · 12:35O. Mitla2.10811381O. Hura1.6711611113LSep 25 · 02:45O. Mitla2.00814115163O. Hura1.731112811142WSep 25 · 01:45M. Smyrnov2.007790O. Hura1.731111113WSep 25 · 00:15V. Vlasenko2.258813151O. Hura1.57111111173WSep 24 · 22:15S. Berezynskyi1.6711139822O. Hura2.106111111113LSep 24 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.10151111123O. Hura1.671779101WSep 21 · 10:08O. Hura2.25111511113N. Kovalchuk1.57817761LSep 21 · 07:55V. Vlasenko2.0012925113O. Hura1.7310112381WSep 21 · 06:55O. Hura1.6791412113O. Mitla2.1011121081
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