TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Melashenko vs Dmytro Derevynskyi 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012211117511––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:14 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Melashenko above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 69 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 58.9%
69 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Melashenko 26–50 Dmytro Derevynskyi Oleksandr Melashenko has won 26 of their 76 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:14What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-50 in 76
Derevynskyi
Correct
gap of 24 in 76, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melashenko 1600 vs Derevynskyi 1564
Melashenko
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melashenko 60% vs Derevynskyi 20%
Melashenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melashenko 50% vs Derevynskyi 30%
Melashenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melashenko -1 · Derevynskyi -3
Derevynskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Derevynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelashenko 2.20 / Derevynskyi 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13191454
Melashenko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 107 of 273
Down 0–1, comes back21% 34 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 91
Derevynskyi1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 200 of 344
Up 2–0, closes it91% 92 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it71% 141 of 198
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelashenko2wins
AwayDerevynskyi8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelashenko25%1 of 4
AwayDerevynskyi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melashenko4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Melashenko3Derevynskyi7n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S3Melashenko5Derevynskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Melashenko3Derevynskyi5n = 8Derevynskyi took 5 of 8
S5Melashenko1Derevynskyi4n = 5Derevynskyi took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelashenkoDerevynskyiM − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.943.5−5.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelashenkoDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime430 / 856 vs 483 / 88450.2%54.6%430 / 856 vs 483 / 884Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiMelashenko 2.20/Derevynskyi 1.61
Hit
What we said
58.9%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 13:55O. Melashenko44118111042D. Derevynskyi52911912113
LSep 15 · 16:25O. Melashenko196760D. Derevynskyi331111113
WSep 12 · 03:35O. Melashenko571491111123D. Derevynskyi541211138102
LSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko4478111172D. Derevynskyi43111119113
LSep 2 · 00:05O. Melashenko28611561D. Derevynskyi4011711113
LAug 22 · 01:05O. Melashenko29125931D. Derevynskyi43101111113
LAug 14 · 23:35O. Melashenko47129111052D. Derevynskyi521011812113
WAug 5 · 18:25O. Melashenko44111111113D. Derevynskyi38138981
LJul 29 · 13:55O. Melashenko216870D. Derevynskyi331111113
LJul 27 · 02:55O. Melashenko4691111962D. Derevynskyi47117711113
O. Melashenko10
LSep 26 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2512119113O. Melashenko3.751071191WSep 26 · 00:35O. Melashenko1.911211113O. Gomilko1.8010480WSep 25 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.7311711141O. Melashenko2.0013117163LSep 25 · 22:05O. Melashenko2.636960V. Lobas1.441111113WSep 24 · 19:25Y. Sokoltsov2.2088100O. Melashenko1.611111123WSep 24 · 18:25O. Melashenko2.00111011113S. Khandetskyi1.73612931LSep 24 · 17:25O. Melashenko2.1071111762H. Kulishov1.67117711113WSep 24 · 15:55O. Melashenko1.671111113V. Kobets2.108870LSep 24 · 13:55O. Melashenko2.25118111042D. Derevynskyi1.57911912113LSep 20 · 04:05Y. Krol1.2511119113O. Melashenko3.75991191
D. Derevynskyi10
LSep 26 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.501111113D. Derevynskyi2.505690LSep 26 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.10711119113D. Derevynskyi1.6711881182LSep 25 · 23:05V. Lobas1.4011123113D. Derevynskyi2.756101161WSep 25 · 21:05Y. Krol2.633790D. Derevynskyi1.441111113LSep 24 · 20:25S. Khandetskyi2.5016611113D. Derevynskyi1.501411971WSep 24 · 18:55D. Derevynskyi1.67111410113H. Kulishov2.109121291LSep 24 · 16:55V. Kobets2.251111610113D. Derevynskyi1.5745111242LSep 24 · 14:55Y. Sokoltsov2.3811119113D. Derevynskyi1.53771181WSep 24 · 13:55O. Melashenko2.25118111042D. Derevynskyi1.57911912113LSep 24 · 04:25D. Derevynskyi1.738860H. Kulishov2.001111113
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