Adam Kral vs Milan Dvorak 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupCzech 5 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Adam Kral

Home

1.95

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

119119511119––

Milan Dvorak

Away

1.75

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:46 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Milan Dvorak to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is going

Point-by-point unavailable

BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.

76 points played in total.

Set by set

119119511119––

H2H Adam Kral 5–3 Milan Dvorak Milan Dvorak has won 3 of their 8 meetings.

Last 8 · 5–3Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Dvorak

Kral 1.95/Dvorak 1.75

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Dvorak · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Kral won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 14:46

54.0%Our read57.1%to break even at 1.75

short by 3.1pp

57.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.75 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.75 (53%)

Dvorak

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

5-3 in 8

Kral

Correct

gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Kral 1450 vs Dvorak 1539

Dvorak

Wrong

both rated, 89 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kral 40% vs Dvorak 80%

Dvorak

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kral 30% vs Dvorak 60%

Dvorak

Wrong

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Kral +1 · Dvorak +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dvorak) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Dvorak: form 80%, the price implies 57%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKral 1.95 / Dvorak 1.75

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Dvorak)-3.1pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 8 meetings

HomeKral5wins

AwayDvorak3wins

2 of 8 to a deciderKral leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKral75%3 of 4

AwayDvorak50%2 of 4

Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Kral4Dvorak4n = 8split evenly

S2Kral3Dvorak5n = 8Dvorak took 5 of 8

S3Kral6Dvorak2n = 8Kral took 6 of 8

S4Kral5Dvorak2n = 7Kral took 5 of 7

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home113%

3–1Four sets, home338%

3–2Decider, home113%

2–3Decider, away113%

1–3Four sets, away225%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 8 meetings

MetricKralDvorakK − DBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match41.838.4+3.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKralDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime406 / 791 vs 165 / 34251.3%48.3%406 / 791 vs 165 / 342Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.538.9per match

TT Cup · #13284913

Kral1.95

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog43% won 90 of 211

Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 112

Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 55

Dvorak1.75

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 07)

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite42% won 25 of 59

Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11

Up 1–0, closes it57% 16 of 28

Adam Kral vs Milan Dvorak 3-1 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Adam Kral vs Milan Dvorak 3-1 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.