Jiri Vanous vs Peter Chvojka 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 21 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Jiri Vanous

Home

1.67

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

5111165111311811

Peter Chvojka

Away

2.10

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:16 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Jiri Vanous to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

Sent to Pro: Peter Chvojka @ 2.10 · Won

The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.

How it is goingJiri Vanous above · Peter Chvojka below

Set 1 · 5-11

Set 2 · 11-6

Set 3 · 5-11

Set 4 · 13-11

Set 5 · 8-11

Point 92 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Jiri Vanous at 54.0%

92 points played in total.

H2H Jiri Vanous 10–2 Peter Chvojka Peter Chvojka has won 2 of their 12 meetings.

Last 10 · 9–1Same sideHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Chvojka

Vanous 1.67/Chvojka 2.10

Hit

What we said

54%

Vanous · sealed before the serve

Sent to Pro: Peter Chvojka @ 2.10 · Won

The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.

What happened

2–3

Chvojka won

The pick

Sealed 18:16

Sent to Pro: Peter Chvojka @ 2.10 · Won

54.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 6.0pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Vanous

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

10-2 in 12

Vanous

Wrong

gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Vanous 1331 vs Chvojka 1430

Chvojka

Correct

both rated, 99 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Vanous 40% vs Chvojka 80%

Chvojka

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Vanous 40% vs Chvojka 60%

Chvojka

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Vanous +2 · Chvojka +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vanous) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Chvojka: form 80%, the price implies 48%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsVanous 1.666 / Chvojka 2.10

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Vanous)-6.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeVanous9wins

AwayChvojka1wins

4 of 10 to a deciderVanous leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeVanous87.5%7 of 8

AwayChvojkan = 2, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Vanous8Chvojka2n = 10Vanous took 8 of 10

S2Vanous6Chvojka4n = 10Vanous took 6 of 10

S3Vanous6Chvojka4n = 10Vanous took 6 of 10

S4Vanous6Chvojka1n = 7Vanous took 6 of 7

S5Vanous3Chvojka1n = 4Vanous took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home330%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricVanousChvojkaV − CBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.634.5+5.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricVanousChvojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 332 vs 165 / 35343.7%46.7%145 / 332 vs 165 / 353Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.5per match

TT Cup · #13283727

Vanous1.67

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite55% won 30 of 55

Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18

Up 1–0, closes it76% 25 of 33

Chvojka2.10

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog41% won 46 of 113

Down 0–1, comes back19% 10 of 52

Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30

Jiri Vanous vs Peter Chvojka 2-3 · TT Cup

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Jiri Vanous vs Peter Chvojka 2-3 · TT Cup

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Today's matches are already sealed.