Jan Skvrna vs Radek Benes 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 52 - H2 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Jan Skvrna

Home

1.73

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 1

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

1161113911118811

Radek Benes

Away

2.00

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:39 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%

Graded at full time

Jan Skvrna to win

54.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Radek Benes below

Set 1 · 11-6

Set 2 · 11-13

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 11-8

Set 5 · 8-11

Point 99 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Jan Skvrna at 54.1%

99 points played in total.

H2H Jan Skvrna 54–39 Radek Benes Radek Benes has won 39 of their 93 meetings.

Last 10 · 3–7SplitHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Skvrna

Skvrna 1.73/Benes 2.00

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54.1%

Skvrna · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Benes won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 11:39

54.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 3.8pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Skvrna

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

54-39 in 93

Skvrna

Wrong

gap of 15 in 93, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Skvrna 1701 vs Benes 1679

Skvrna

Wrong

both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Skvrna 60% vs Benes 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Skvrna 70% vs Benes 50%

Skvrna

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Skvrna +1 · Benes +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Skvrna) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSkvrna 1.727 / Benes 2.00

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Skvrna)-3.8pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeSkvrna3wins

AwayBenes7wins

3 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSkvrnan = 2, below the 3 needed

AwayBenes87.5%7 of 8

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Skvrna2Benes8n = 10Benes took 8 of 10

S2Skvrna6Benes4n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10

S3Skvrna7Benes3n = 10Skvrna took 7 of 10

S4Skvrna1Benes7n = 8Benes took 7 of 8

S5Skvrna1Benes2n = 3Benes took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away440%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricSkvrnaBenesS − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.440.5−4.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSkvrnaBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime506 / 873 vs 544 / 103558%52.6%506 / 873 vs 544 / 1035Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.9per match

TT Cup · #13281944

Skvrna1.73

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite59% won 231 of 393

Up 2–0, closes it94% 75 of 80

Up 1–0, closes it75% 160 of 214

Benes2.00

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog44% won 63 of 142

Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 83

Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 40

Jan Skvrna vs Radek Benes 2-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jan Skvrna vs Radek Benes 2-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.