Spartak Abalmaz vs Oleksandr Naida 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 13Finished

Spartak Abalmaz

Home

1.53

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

8111176111191012

Oleksandr Naida

Away

2.38

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:46 and never touched: 61.2% is still 61.2%

Graded at full time

Spartak Abalmaz to win

61.2%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingSpartak Abalmaz above · Oleksandr Naida below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 6-11

Set 4 · 11-9

Set 5 · 10-12

Point 96 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 61.2%

96 points played in total.

H2H Spartak Abalmaz 74–49 Oleksandr Naida Oleksandr Naida has won 49 of their 123 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Abalmaz

Abalmaz 1.53/Naida 2.38

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

61.2%

Abalmaz · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Naida won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 02:46

61.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533

short by 4.0pp

65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.53 (61%)

Abalmaz

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

74-49 in 123

Abalmaz

Wrong

gap of 25 in 123, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Abalmaz 1576 vs Naida 1551

Abalmaz

Wrong

both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Abalmaz 60% vs Naida 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Abalmaz 60% vs Naida 70%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Abalmaz +1 · Naida +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Abalmaz) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Naida: form 60%, the price implies 42%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsAbalmaz 1.533 / Naida 2.375

Signal prob.61% / 39%

Edge (Abalmaz)-4.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeAbalmaz5wins

AwayNaida5wins

5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeAbalmaz60%3 of 5

AwayNaida60%3 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Abalmaz5Naida5n = 10split evenly

S2Abalmaz4Naida6n = 10Naida took 6 of 10

S3Abalmaz6Naida4n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10

S4Abalmaz6Naida4n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10

S5Abalmaz2Naida3n = 5Naida took 3 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricAbalmazNaidaA − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.041.4−1.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricAbalmazNaidaBasisWin rate · lifetime426 / 838 vs 472 / 92850.8%50.9%426 / 838 vs 472 / 928Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.0per match

Setka Cup · #13281791

Abalmaz1.53

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite58% won 161 of 278

Up 2–0, closes it96% 79 of 82

Up 1–0, closes it75% 119 of 159

Naida2.38

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As underdog44% won 88 of 198

Down 0–1, comes back27% 31 of 115

Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56

Spartak Abalmaz vs Oleksandr Naida 2-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Spartak Abalmaz vs Oleksandr Naida 2-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

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Today's matches are already sealed.