Jan Blazek vs Martin Vorel 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Jan Blazek

Home

2.50

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

9114111513511––

Martin Vorel

Away

1.50

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched: 60.7% is still 60.7%

Graded at full time

Martin Vorel to win

60.7%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

Sent to Pro: Martin Vorel @ 1.50 · Won

How it is goingJan Blazek above · Martin Vorel below

Set 1 · 9-11

Set 2 · 4-11

Set 3 · 15-13

Set 4 · 5-11

Point 79 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Martin Vorel at 60.7%

79 points played in total.

H2H Jan Blazek 12–19 Martin Vorel Jan Blazek has won 12 of their 31 meetings.

Last 10 · 3–7Same sideHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Vorel

Blazek 2.50/Vorel 1.50

Hit

What we said

60.7%

Vorel · sealed before the serve

Sent to Pro: Martin Vorel @ 1.50 · Won

What happened

1–3

Vorel won

The pick

Sealed 20:38

Sent to Pro: Martin Vorel @ 1.50 · Won

60.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50

short by 6.0pp

66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.50 (63%)

Vorel

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

12-19 in 31

Vorel

Correct

gap of 7 in 31, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Blazek 1385 vs Vorel 1362

Blazek

Wrong

both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Blazek 40% vs Vorel 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Blazek 50% vs Vorel 50%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Blazek +1 · Vorel -3

Vorel

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.

Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Vorel) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Vorel: form 40%, the price implies 67%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsBlazek 2.50 / Vorel 1.50

Signal prob.39% / 61%

Edge (Vorel)-6.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeBlazek3wins

AwayVorel7wins

2 of 10 to a deciderVorel leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeBlazek75%3 of 4

AwayVorel100%6 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Blazek4Vorel6n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10

S2Blazek6Vorel4n = 10Blazek took 6 of 10

S3Blazek2Vorel8n = 10Vorel took 8 of 10

S4Blazek3Vorel2n = 5Blazek took 3 of 5

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away330%

These 10 meetings

MetricBlazekVorelB − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.937.0−3.1per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricBlazekVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime161 / 373 vs 385 / 77443.2%49.7%161 / 373 vs 385 / 774Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.1per match

Setka Cup · #13281610

Blazek2.50

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 09)

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog40% won 52 of 129

Down 0–1, comes back21% 15 of 72

Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39

Vorel1.50

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As favourite53% won 92 of 175

Up 2–0, closes it83% 38 of 46

Up 1–0, closes it68% 64 of 94

Jan Blazek vs Martin Vorel 1-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jan Blazek vs Martin Vorel 1-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.