Valerii Lukianevych vs Maksym Karelov 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Valerii Lukianevych

Home

1.40

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

1214711118911––

Maksym Karelov

Away

2.75

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:00 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%

Graded at full time

Valerii Lukianevych to win

65.7%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingValerii Lukianevych above · Maksym Karelov below

Set 1 · 12-14

Set 2 · 7-11

Set 3 · 11-8

Set 4 · 9-11

Point 83 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Valerii Lukianevych at 65.7%

83 points played in total.

H2H Valerii Lukianevych 17–6 Maksym Karelov Maksym Karelov has won 6 of their 23 meetings.

Last 10 · 9–1Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Lukianevych

Lukianevych 1.40/Karelov 2.75

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

65.7%

Lukianevych · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Karelov won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 14:00

65.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40

short by 5.7pp

71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.40 (66%)

Lukianevych

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

17-6 in 23

Lukianevych

Wrong

gap of 11 in 23, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Lukianevych 1186 vs Karelov 1143

Lukianevych

Wrong

both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Lukianevych 40% vs Karelov 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Lukianevych 30% vs Karelov 30%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Lukianevych -1 · Karelov -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Lukianevych) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Lukianevych: form 40%, the price implies 71%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsLukianevych 1.40 / Karelov 2.75

Signal prob.66% / 34%

Edge (Lukianevych)-5.7pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeLukianevych9wins

AwayKarelov1wins

3 of 10 to a deciderLukianevych leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeLukianevych83.3%5 of 6

AwayKarelov0%0 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Lukianevych6Karelov4n = 10Lukianevych took 6 of 10

S2Lukianevych9Karelov1n = 10Lukianevych took 9 of 10

S3Lukianevych9Karelov1n = 10Lukianevych took 9 of 10

S4Lukianevych3Karelov3n = 6split evenly

S5Lukianevych2Karelov1n = 3Lukianevych took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home440%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricLukianevychKarelovL − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.332.9+7.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricLukianevychKarelovBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 413 vs 46 / 12849.4%35.9%204 / 413 vs 46 / 128Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.4per match

Setka Cup · #13281606

Lukianevych1.40

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite69% won 69 of 100

Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40

Up 1–0, closes it82% 51 of 62

Karelov2.75

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog33% won 29 of 87

Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 45

Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32

Valerii Lukianevych vs Maksym Karelov 1-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Valerii Lukianevych vs Maksym Karelov 1-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.