Michal Chalupa vs Michal Wollny 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA16 · Havlickuv Brod

Played Oct 12Finished

Michal Chalupa

Home

2.50

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 2

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

811411114711––

Michal Wollny

Away

1.50

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched: 62.5% is still 62.5%

Graded at full time

Michal Wollny to win

62.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · Michal Wollny below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 4-11

Set 3 · 11-4

Set 4 · 7-11

Point 67 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Michal Wollny at 62.5%

67 points played in total.

H2H Michal Chalupa 1–3 Michal Wollny Michal Chalupa has won 1 of their 4 meetings.

Last 4 · 1–3Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Wollny

Chalupa 2.50/Wollny 1.50

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

62.5%

Wollny · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Wollny won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 18:54

62.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50

short by 4.2pp

66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.50 (63%)

Wollny

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

1-3 in 4

Wollny

Correct

gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Chalupa 1694 vs Wollny 1661

Chalupa

Wrong

both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Chalupa 60% vs Wollny 40%

Chalupa

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Chalupa 40% vs Wollny 20%

Chalupa

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Chalupa +2 · Wollny -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Wollny) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Wollny: form 40%, the price implies 67%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsChalupa 2.50 / Wollny 1.50

Signal prob.38% / 63%

Edge (Wollny)-4.2pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 4 meetings

HomeChalupa1wins

AwayWollny3wins

Wollny leads 3–1.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeChalupan = 1, below the 3 needed

AwayWollny100%3 of 3

Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Chalupa1Wollny3n = 4Wollny took 3 of 4

S2Chalupa1Wollny3n = 4Wollny took 3 of 4

S3Chalupa0Wollny4n = 4Wollny took 4 of 4

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home125%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away375%

These 4 meetings

MetricChalupaWollnyC − WBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match23.533.0−9.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricChalupaWollnyBasisWin rate · lifetime384 / 731 vs 110 / 21552.5%51.2%384 / 731 vs 110 / 215Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.0per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13279035

Chalupa2.50

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog45% won 67 of 150

Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 87

Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46

Wollny1.50

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 11 days ago (Oct 01) · back after a break

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite50% won 23 of 46

Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13

Up 1–0, closes it70% 19 of 27

Michal Chalupa vs Michal Wollny 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Michal Chalupa vs Michal Wollny 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.