TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Lach vs Dariusz Swider 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210611711711––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:23 and never touched: 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeMarcin Lach to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcin Lach above · Dariusz Swider below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Marcin Lach at 63.8%
75 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Lach 1–0 Dariusz Swider Dariusz Swider has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2363.8%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.9pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (61%)
Lach
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lach 1536 vs Swider 1370
Lach
Wrong
both rated, 166 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lach 80% vs Swider 40%
Lach
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lach 90% vs Swider 40%
Lach
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lach +2 · Swider +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Lach) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lach form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLach 1.50 / Swider 2.35
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Lach)-2.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13277741
Lach1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite67% won 134 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it99% 81 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it82% 101 of 124
Swider2.35
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLach1wins
AwaySwider0wins
Lach leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLachSwiderL − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.023.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLachSwiderBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 270 vs 17 / 3563%48.6%170 / 270 vs 17 / 35Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LachLach 1.50/Swider 2.35
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.8%
Lach · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Swider won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 11 · 03:25M. Lach331111113D. Swider239770
M. Lach10
LOct 11 · 10:10P. Polok2.252111111113M. Lach1.5711813772WOct 11 · 07:45M. Lach1.5313915113P. Polok2.3811111391WOct 11 · 06:30M. Lach1.8318911113J. Wieczerzak1.831611681LOct 11 · 05:15M. Lach2.20117100A. Cichocki1.611311123WOct 11 · 04:10Z. Sobkow4.339470M. Lach1.201111113WOct 11 · 03:25M. Lach1.531111113D. Swider2.389770WOct 10 · 13:55M. Lach1.281111113Z. Sobkow3.506960WOct 10 · 12:40M. Lach1.141111113I. Szymanski5.003370WOct 10 · 11:25M. Lach1.83151114113W. Wojtaszczyk1.831391661WOct 10 · 10:10J. Wieczerzak1.837613111M. Lach1.83111111133
D. Swider10
WOct 11 · 08:35Z. Sobkow2.10981161D. Swider1.6711117113LOct 11 · 07:20D. Swider2.0012231562A. Cichocki1.7310111113113LOct 11 · 06:05P. Polok1.6111811113D. Swider2.20811551WOct 11 · 04:55J. Wieczerzak1.67114361D. Swider2.1061111113LOct 11 · 03:25M. Lach1.531111113D. Swider2.389770WOct 10 · 16:40D. Swider1.4611119133W. Buczynski2.506711111LOct 10 · 15:05D. Morawiec1.90116112113D. Swider1.8071171172WOct 10 · 14:20A. Cichocki2.1691191182D. Swider1.63116119113LOct 10 · 13:30D. Swider1.6011611161P. Gumulinski2.1513117183LOct 10 · 12:20D. Swider3.4064100M. Oracz1.271111123
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