TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Sarganek vs Borek Moravec 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 51 - H1 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111171161412––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:09 and never touched: 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeDavid Sarganek to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Borek Moravec @ 2.75 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingDavid Sarganek above · Borek Moravec below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 79 set 4, 14-12 · our read held David Sarganek at 61.9%
79 points played in total.
The pick
Sealed 06:09Sent to Pro: Borek Moravec @ 2.75 · Lost
61.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 4.8pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Sarganek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Sarganek 1685 vs Moravec 1829
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 144 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sarganek 60% vs Moravec 100%
Moravec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sarganek 60% vs Moravec 90%
Moravec
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sarganek +3 · Moravec +6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Sarganek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSarganek 1.50 / Moravec 2.50
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Sarganek)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13277355
Sarganek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 67 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it80% 45 of 56
Moravec2.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 38 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back35% 15 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricSarganekMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 521 vs 289 / 48952.2%59.1%272 / 521 vs 289 / 489Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.839.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecSarganek 1.50/Moravec 2.50
Miss
What we said
61.9%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Borek Moravec @ 2.75 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–1
Sarganek won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
D. Sarganek10
LOct 11 · 09:13D. Sarganek1.578980B. Moravec2.251111113WOct 11 · 06:45D. Sarganek1.53111111113F. Chaloupka2.38135781WOct 11 · 05:45D. Sarganek1.5711119113M. Macurak2.25571161WOct 8 · 16:45R. Kowal1.733980D. Sarganek2.001111113LOct 8 · 16:10D. Sarganek1.671155101J. Skvrna2.1061111123LOct 8 · 14:40F. Sikora1.73691111113D. Sarganek2.0011119862LOct 8 · 14:10R. Kowal1.831313118113D. Sarganek1.83111521192WOct 6 · 21:10R. Kowal1.679660D. Sarganek2.101111113WOct 6 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.611111123A. Baros2.2099100WOct 6 · 18:45J. Baca2.406380D. Sarganek1.501111113
B. Moravec10
WOct 11 · 09:13D. Sarganek1.578980B. Moravec2.251111113WOct 11 · 07:15M. Macurak2.755970B. Moravec1.401111113WOct 11 · 06:15B. Moravec1.53127118113F. Chaloupka2.38101161152WOct 9 · 17:15B. Moravec1.501211113M. Macurak2.5010440WOct 9 · 15:45B. Moravec1.571221211113F. Chaloupka2.25141110472WOct 9 · 14:45B. Moravec1.441111113J. Krupnik2.632640WOct 9 · 13:45B. Moravec1.501112113M. Macurak2.5081080LOct 6 · 17:10B. Moravec1.736180L. Slavik2.001111113WOct 6 · 15:45B. Moravec1.4491213113J. Krupnik2.6311101111WOct 6 · 14:45B. Moravec1.537101111123D. Skulina2.38111279102
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