TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Cherevko vs Dmytro Neborak 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111171012117411
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:48 and never touched: 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Cherevko to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Cherevko above · Dmytro Neborak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 93 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Roman Cherevko at 66.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Roman Cherevko 4–2 Dmytro Neborak Dmytro Neborak has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:4866.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cherevko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Cherevko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cherevko 1674 vs Neborak 1654
Cherevko
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cherevko 40% vs Neborak 60%
Neborak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cherevko 40% vs Neborak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cherevko -2 · Neborak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Cherevko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCherevko 1.444 / Neborak 2.625
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Cherevko)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276960
Cherevko1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 101 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it85% 72 of 85
Neborak2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 119 of 333
Down 0–1, comes back17% 32 of 194
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeCherevko4wins
AwayNeborak2wins
5 of 6 to a deciderCherevko leads 4–2, and 5 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCherevko66.7%2 of 3
AwayNeborak33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cherevko3Neborak3n = 6split evenly
S2Cherevko2Neborak4n = 6Neborak took 4 of 6
S3Cherevko4Neborak2n = 6Cherevko took 4 of 6
S4Cherevko4Neborak2n = 6Cherevko took 4 of 6
S5Cherevko2Neborak1n = 3Cherevko took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricCherevkoNeborakC − NBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match48.045.2+2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCherevkoNeborakBasisWin rate · lifetime378 / 737 vs 307 / 85251.3%36%378 / 737 vs 307 / 852Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.035.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CherevkoCherevko 1.44/Neborak 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Cherevko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 10 · 01:55R. Cherevko3711113123D. Neborak294411101
LSep 6 · 14:55R. Cherevko51171115532D. Neborak621981311113
WAug 23 · 16:25R. Cherevko50981111113D. Neborak4211115872
WAug 22 · 14:25R. Cherevko541171015113D. Neborak48611121362
R. Cherevko10
LOct 11 · 16:55Y. Masko1.6151212113R. Cherevko2.2011101071LOct 11 · 14:55E. Pismenniy2.5011651143R. Cherevko1.5031111812WOct 10 · 19:55E. Pismenniy3.009880R. Cherevko1.361111113WOct 10 · 18:55Y. Masko1.73118111362R. Cherevko2.001311611113LOct 10 · 17:25V. Melnik1.61111111113R. Cherevko2.20981361LOct 10 · 15:25D. Neborak2.75411711113R. Cherevko1.4011511892LOct 10 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.5011116133R. Cherevko2.509711111WOct 10 · 03:25R. Cherevko2.2011117123V. Melnik1.615911101WOct 10 · 01:55R. Cherevko1.5711113123D. Neborak2.254411101LOct 10 · 00:25R. Cherevko2.63711981A. Tuzhylin1.4411611113
D. Neborak10
WOct 11 · 17:25V. Melnik1.4068140D. Neborak2.751111163LOct 11 · 15:25A. Tuzhylin1.061111113D. Neborak8.009430WOct 11 · 13:25E. Pismenniy2.50111340D. Neborak1.50131583WOct 10 · 20:25D. Neborak2.751112143Y. Masko1.40610120LOct 10 · 18:25V. Melnik1.366111111113D. Neborak3.0011132742LOct 10 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.131111143D. Neborak5.5068120WOct 10 · 15:25D. Neborak2.75411711113R. Cherevko1.4011511892LOct 10 · 14:25E. Pismenniy3.001611127123D. Neborak1.361481411112LOct 10 · 03:55D. Neborak2.63211132112Y. Masko1.441181111133LOct 10 · 01:55R. Cherevko1.5711113123D. Neborak2.254411101
Upcoming Matches
R. Cherevko
D. Neborak
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