TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Radovan Pisa vs Lukas Veigl 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118911117116––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:36 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Veigl to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadovan Pisa above · Lukas Veigl below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 74 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Lukas Veigl at 54.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Pisa 29–49 Lukas Veigl Radovan Pisa has won 29 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3654.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Veigl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-49 in 78
Veigl
Wrong
gap of 20 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pisa 1661 vs Veigl 1698
Veigl
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pisa 0% vs Veigl 20%
Veigl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pisa 30% vs Veigl 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pisa -6 · Veigl -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Veigl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Veigl form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPisa 2.00 / Veigl 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Veigl)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276473
Pisa2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 87 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back29% 30 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 58
Veigl1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 71 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it76% 47 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePisa6wins
AwayVeigl4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPisa leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePisa75%3 of 4
AwayVeigl50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pisa4Veigl6n = 10Veigl took 6 of 10
S2Pisa5Veigl5n = 10split evenly
S3Pisa4Veigl6n = 10Veigl took 6 of 10
S4Pisa6Veigl3n = 9Pisa took 6 of 9
S5Pisa3Veigl1n = 4Pisa took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPisaVeiglP − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.841.6−1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPisaVeiglBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 795 vs 279 / 54548.2%51.2%383 / 795 vs 279 / 545Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.540.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VeiglPisa 2.00/Veigl 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Veigl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pisa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 12:20R. Pisa51811711143L. Veigl45116115122
WOct 9 · 11:15R. Pisa3811115113L. Veigl34691181
LSep 27 · 19:45R. Pisa159330L. Veigl331111113
WSep 10 · 08:00R. Pisa4212711123L. Veigl3910118101
LSep 8 · 09:30R. Pisa4281111932L. Veigl43117311113
WJul 23 · 06:15R. Pisa49711911113L. Veigl4111611942
WJul 22 · 08:58R. Pisa4351116113L. Veigl431191491
WJul 22 · 06:00R. Pisa521141511113L. Veigl5591117992
LJul 15 · 08:28R. Pisa35126981L. Veigl43101111113
LJul 15 · 06:30R. Pisa31951161L. Veigl4011117113
R. Pisa10
LOct 11 · 10:15O. Mezera2.20481111113R. Pisa1.6111118482LOct 11 · 09:45L. Svoboda2.00111178113R. Pisa1.7384111192LOct 10 · 08:13L. Heinzl1.571211113R. Pisa2.2510890LOct 10 · 07:15R. Pisa2.007460L. Heinzl1.731111113LOct 10 · 06:15R. Pisa2.20711671M. Zelinka1.6111511113LOct 10 · 05:15R. Pisa1.834540L. Rulc1.831111113WOct 9 · 12:20L. Veigl1.61116115122R. Pisa2.20811711143WOct 9 · 11:15R. Pisa2.1011115113L. Veigl1.67691181LOct 9 · 10:15R. Pisa1.539780J. Dolezal2.381111113WOct 9 · 09:15R. Pisa1.831118113T. Liska1.8391680
L. Veigl10
LOct 11 · 10:45L. Svoboda1.731111113L. Veigl2.005680LOct 11 · 09:15O. Mezera2.2511911123L. Veigl1.577118101LOct 9 · 12:20L. Veigl1.61116115122R. Pisa2.20811711143LOct 9 · 11:15R. Pisa2.1011115113L. Veigl1.67691181WOct 9 · 10:45L. Veigl1.73111378113T. Liska2.00511111162WOct 9 · 09:45L. Veigl1.67811118123J. Dolezal2.10114411102LOct 6 · 16:44L. Veigl2.50114591J. Krames Sr1.5081111113LOct 6 · 15:45J. Krames Sr1.611111153L. Veigl2.2047130LOct 6 · 14:45M. Makara2.25125115113L. Veigl1.57101181182LOct 6 · 13:15V. Grubr1.8311511113L. Veigl1.83811881
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