Kacper Kwiatkowski vs Andrzej Szurgot 0-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa

Played Oct 12Finished

Kacper Kwiatkowski

Home

1.33

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

Final

0 – 3

Set by set

611211611––––

Andrzej Szurgot

Away

3.25

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:31 and never touched: 69.7% is still 69.7%

Graded at full time

Kacper Kwiatkowski to win

69.7%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Andrzej Szurgot below

Set 1 · 6-11

Set 2 · 2-11

Set 3 · 6-11

Point 47 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 69.7%

47 points played in total.

H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 2–4 Andrzej Szurgot Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 2 of their 6 meetings.

Last 6 · 2–4Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Kwiatkowski

Kwiatkowski 1.33/Szurgot 3.25

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

69.7%

Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve

What happened

0–3

Szurgot won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 01:31

69.7%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333

short by 5.3pp

75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.33 (71%)

Kwiatkowski

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

2-4 in 6

Szurgot

Correct

gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Kwiatkowski 1285 vs Szurgot 1244

Kwiatkowski

Wrong

both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kwiatkowski 60% vs Szurgot 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kwiatkowski 30% vs Szurgot 50%

Szurgot

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Kwiatkowski -1 · Szurgot -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Szurgot: form 60%, the price implies 31%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.333 / Szurgot 3.25

Signal prob.70% / 30%

Edge (Kwiatkowski)-5.3pp (anti-value)

They have already met 2 times today · last one 9h before this match

Szurgot beat Kwiatkowski 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 6 meetings

HomeKwiatkowski2wins

AwaySzurgot4wins

1 of 6 to a deciderSzurgot leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKwiatkowski50%2 of 4

AwaySzurgotn = 2, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Kwiatkowski4Szurgot2n = 6Kwiatkowski took 4 of 6

S2Kwiatkowski3Szurgot3n = 6split evenly

S3Kwiatkowski2Szurgot4n = 6Szurgot took 4 of 6

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home233%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away117%

1–3Four sets, away233%

0–3Straight, away117%

These 6 meetings

MetricKwiatkowskiSzurgotK − SBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match31.433.4−2.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKwiatkowskiSzurgotBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 350 vs 41 / 17043.1%24.1%151 / 350 vs 41 / 170Avg sets wonper match1.91.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.232.0per match

TT Elite Series · #13275287

Kwiatkowski1.33

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite54% won 58 of 108

Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34

Up 1–0, closes it77% 46 of 60

Szurgot3.25

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog20% won 28 of 137

Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 100

Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 72

Kacper Kwiatkowski vs Andrzej Szurgot 0-3 · TT Elite Series

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Kacper Kwiatkowski vs Andrzej Szurgot 0-3 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.