TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Szymon Sporek vs Jakub Chmielowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1198111181210––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:47 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeSzymon Sporek to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSzymon Sporek above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 80 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Szymon Sporek at 55.8%
80 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Sporek 18–15 Jakub Chmielowski Jakub Chmielowski has won 15 of their 33 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Chmielowski beat Sporek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:4755.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sporek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-15 in 33
Sporek
Correct
gap of 3 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sporek 1715 vs Chmielowski 1701
Sporek
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sporek 40% vs Chmielowski 60%
Chmielowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sporek 50% vs Chmielowski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sporek +1 · Chmielowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Sporek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSporek 1.666 / Chmielowski 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Sporek)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13275079
Sporek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 100 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it97% 56 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it80% 83 of 104
Chmielowski2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 63 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back20% 20 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSporek6wins
AwayChmielowski4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSporek leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSporek100%5 of 5
AwayChmielowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sporek5Chmielowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Sporek6Chmielowski4n = 10Sporek took 6 of 10
S3Sporek6Chmielowski4n = 10Sporek took 6 of 10
S4Sporek7Chmielowski1n = 8Sporek took 7 of 8
S5Sporek2Chmielowski4n = 6Chmielowski took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSporekChmielowskiS − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.342.2+0.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSporekChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime387 / 778 vs 333 / 68949.7%48.3%387 / 778 vs 333 / 689Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SporekSporek 1.67/Chmielowski 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Sporek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sporek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 11 · 18:05S. Sporek3954111182J. Chmielowski51111199113
WOct 10 · 21:00S. Sporek45411811113J. Chmielowski4111511772
WOct 10 · 16:05S. Sporek371411123J. Chmielowski29127100
WAug 29 · 23:20S. Sporek361114113J. Chmielowski3091290
LAug 29 · 20:30S. Sporek486101111102J. Chmielowski52111289123
WJun 18 · 09:00S. Sporek4011711113J. Chmielowski35711981
WJun 12 · 10:20S. Sporek45111211113J. Chmielowski376101381
WJun 12 · 05:45S. Sporek44115116113J. Chmielowski4891181192
LJun 11 · 09:05S. Sporek4261181252J. Chmielowski511181110113
LJun 11 · 04:35S. Sporek47811111162J. Chmielowski48116137113
S. Sporek10
WOct 11 · 21:25S. Sporek1.57101111113D. Jadam2.25126781LOct 11 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.80119118113S. Sporek1.9161171192LOct 11 · 19:15S. Sporek1.44412891K. Staszczyk2.63111011113LOct 11 · 18:05J. Chmielowski2.00111199113S. Sporek1.7354111182WOct 11 · 16:55D. Jadam2.38791151S. Sporek1.5311115113LOct 11 · 15:25K. Kolodziej1.531111113S. Sporek2.388530WOct 11 · 00:10M. Kolek2.607121171S. Sporek1.4111148113LOct 10 · 23:45S. Sporek1.531061171D. Jadam2.3812116113WOct 10 · 22:55S. Sporek1.731112113F. Mlynarski2.0041080WOct 10 · 21:00S. Sporek1.83411811113J. Chmielowski1.8311511772
J. Chmielowski10
WOct 11 · 22:35J. Chmielowski1.91331111113F. Mlynarski1.8011116992LOct 11 · 19:40K. Kolodziej1.301111113J. Chmielowski3.406550WOct 11 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.917115101J. Chmielowski1.8011811123WOct 11 · 18:05J. Chmielowski2.00111199113S. Sporek1.7354111182WOct 11 · 16:30J. Chmielowski2.0011911113K. Staszczyk1.73711581LOct 11 · 15:45D. Jadam1.73511118113J. Chmielowski2.0011881182WOct 10 · 23:20M. Kolek1.918770J. Chmielowski1.801111113WOct 10 · 22:35D. Jadam1.8011119882J. Chmielowski1.91991111113LOct 10 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.20511471F. Mlynarski1.6111811113LOct 10 · 21:00S. Sporek1.83411811113J. Chmielowski1.8311511772
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