TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Jesiek vs Wojciech Pytlas 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesBLW · Blachownia
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114119911117––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:56 and never touched: 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeWojciech Pytlas to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
114119911117––
H2H Jakub Jesiek 1–5 Wojciech Pytlas Jakub Jesiek has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 03:5655.9%Our read58.1%to break even at 1.72
short by 2.2pp58.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.72 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.72 (54%)
Pytlas
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Pytlas
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jesiek 1351 vs Pytlas 1442
Pytlas
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jesiek 0% vs Pytlas 100%
Pytlas
Wrong
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jesiek 30% vs Pytlas 80%
Pytlas
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jesiek -5 · Pytlas +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Pytlas) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pytlas form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJesiek 2.00 / Pytlas 1.72
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Pytlas)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13274355
Jesiek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 80 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back27% 25 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Pytlas1.72
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 142 of 222
Up 2–0, closes it94% 83 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it85% 110 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeJesiek1wins
AwayPytlas5wins
3 of 6 to a deciderPytlas leads 5–1, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJesiek33.3%1 of 3
AwayPytlas100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jesiek3Pytlas3n = 6split evenly
S2Jesiek1Pytlas5n = 6Pytlas took 5 of 6
S3Jesiek4Pytlas2n = 6Jesiek took 4 of 6
S4Jesiek1Pytlas5n = 6Pytlas took 5 of 6
S5Jesiek1Pytlas2n = 3Pytlas took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricJesiekPytlasJ − PBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match41.244.0−2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJesiekPytlasBasisWin rate · lifetime296 / 568 vs 409 / 76052.1%53.8%296 / 568 vs 409 / 760Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PytlasJesiek 2.00/Pytlas 1.72
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.9%
Pytlas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jesiek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LOct 10 · 04:50J. Jesiek321061151W. Pytlas4312119113
LSep 5 · 06:25J. Jesiek4611911962W. Pytlas49811811113
WJul 26 · 04:50J. Jesiek561191015113W. Pytlas46511121352
LApr 25 · 08:00J. Jesiek368101171W. Pytlas4111127113
LNov 30 · 05:50J. Jesiek37811991W. Pytlas3811511113
LNov 29 · 08:35J. Jesiek4011911542W. Pytlas47911511113
J. Jesiek10
LOct 10 · 08:20I. Szymanski1.2171513113J. Jesiek4.0011131181LOct 10 · 07:35K. Hetnar1.541111113J. Jesiek2.256840LOct 10 · 05:35M. Koczyba1.78111011113J. Jesiek1.93412521LOct 10 · 04:50W. Pytlas1.8812119113J. Jesiek1.821061151LOct 10 · 03:10K. Adamus1.881111113J. Jesiek1.829890WOct 4 · 14:40P. Polok1.5011940J. Jesiek2.501311113WOct 4 · 13:30J. Jesiek2.00116117113W. Buczynski1.7391151152LOct 4 · 12:15D. Swider1.61811129113J. Jesiek2.20117101182WOct 4 · 11:00R. Idaczyk1.8313117582J. Jesiek1.831141111113LOct 4 · 09:25W. Wojtaszczyk1.831112113J. Jesiek1.8371040
W. Pytlas10
WOct 10 · 08:00M. Koczyba1.7512911652W. Pytlas1.951011711113WOct 10 · 07:10K. Adamus1.62101111692W. Pytlas2.17127911113WOct 10 · 06:25W. Pytlas2.1511117113K. Hetnar1.60751191WOct 10 · 04:50W. Pytlas1.8812119113J. Jesiek1.821061151WOct 10 · 04:00I. Szymanski2.081510118112W. Pytlas1.681312611133LOct 8 · 20:45K. Adamus1.64115911123W. Pytlas2.14811119102WOct 8 · 19:35W. Pytlas1.271111113R. Komandzik3.259360WOct 8 · 18:25G. Jurowicz2.404390W. Pytlas1.501111113LOct 8 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.461111113W. Pytlas2.554130WOct 8 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.666940W. Pytlas2.051111113
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